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American League Futures Consideration

by Nelly's Sports

Thursday, Sep 28, 2023

Baltimore has stunned baseball to not only make the playoffs this season but has emerged as the likely #1 seed in the American League with that position nearly clinched. The numbers certainly support the Orioles as the most complete team in the AL field, but this is also a group with minimal playoff experience and a pitching staff that lacks the elite results of most past World Series champions.  Houston won the World Series last season as the #1 seed in the American League but over time that won’t likely prove to the be the norm with this being just the second season of the current 12-team format. On the National League side, the #6 seed made the World Series last season and after a tense finish in the AL West there are viable candidates to make a run in this year’s AL field with more attractive pricing than where the Orioles currently stand, with Baltimore last winning a playoff series in 2014 and last winning the World Series in 1983. Baltimore and Texas are close to clinching the #1 and #2 spots in the AL Bracket but don’t present attractive prices at +250 and +265 respectively to win the AL Pennant. Another team may, however, be worth consideration.  CONSIDERATION: TAMPA BAY RAYS +500 TO WIN THE AMERICAN LEAGUE Tampa Bay was the driver’s seat in the American League most of the season after a historic 29-7 start to the season. The Rays had a tough month of July to allow Baltimore an opportunity to move ahead in the AL East and even while Tampa Bay has played well down the stretch, they will have to go through the Wild Card round barring a collapse for Baltimore.  A surprise early in the season was the bullpen for the Rays struggling despite the success of the team, with the offense and starting staff carrying the team. Injuries have greatly hurt the Rays potential on paper with Shane Baz, Shane McClanahan, Drew Rasmussen, and Jeffrey Springs lost for the season. The bullpen for the Rays climbed into the top 10 in the season numbers late in the season and currently leads MLB with a 2.77 FIP from relievers in the past month.  Tyler Glasnow returned to the Rays in June and gives Tampa Bay a true ace to lead the rotation, while Zach Eflin, Zack Littell, and Aaron Civale have all pitched well enough to earn a postseason start. In a three-game wild card series with Glasnow starting Game 1, the Rays have plenty of options to work with to cover two other games with its mix of elite relievers and capable starting options.  Should Tampa Bay advance, they would draw the top seeded Orioles who won eight of 13 games vs. the Rays this season but with even scoring at 48-48. The Orioles will have won only a few more games than the Rays on the season as Tampa Bay will have the second best record in the American League and a stronger scoring differential than Baltimore to warrant only a minimal underdog price. The Orioles with a young team and without playoff experience will also be in the less than ideal position of having nearly a week off to potentially zap the team’s late season momentum and build pressure in Baltimore.  In the Wild Card round it isn’t confirmed who Tampa Bay will draw, but right now it would be Toronto, with the Jays 128 runs worse than the Rays in scoring differential this season. Toronto lacks formidable starting pitching with Kevin Gausman and Chris Bassitt inconsistent performers at the top of the rotation while the Toronto bullpen ranks 18th in the past month in WAR while posting a 4.57 ERA.  Tampa Bay is 32-18 since August 1 while the Blue Jays are 28-23, rarely rising above an average level for significant stretches all season. Toronto will also face the Rays in the final regular season series with the Jays likely needing to go all out to win those games while the Rays will be unlikely to use any meaningful pitching options in those games. That would set up a possible advantage in the Wild Card round that would be in St. Petersburg, where the Rays have a current MLB best 53-28 home record.  The Rays could also draw Houston who went 7-0 in the AL playoffs on the way to winning the World Series last season, but the Astros didn’t face the Rays last season and Tampa Bay beat Houston in the 2020 ALCS. Tampa Bay was upset by Cleveland in the Wild Card round last season with only one run scored in 24 innings, but this was a World Series team in 2020 and this year the Rays have 837 runs with a few games to go for the season after scoring only 666 runs in the 2022 regular season for a dramatic improvement. Texas is the only team that has scored more among AL teams this season as the Rays would have a sizeable edge at the plate vs. Toronto, Houston, or Baltimore.  In the current bracket, the Rays would not have to face the Twins or Mariners until the ALCS with Minnesota and Seattle (should they get in) possessing the best starting pitching among AL playoff teams as the thin depth in the rotation for Tampa Bay may not be as big of a factor as it might appear to be on paper in the playoffs. Tampa Bay is also the only team besides the Astros in the playoff field with significant playoff experience and recent playoff success, as Tampa Bay should be priced as a more serious threat in the AL Pennant chase. 

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NFL Week 4: VW's Power Rankings

by Vegas Writer

Thursday, Sep 28, 2023

Who are these Miami Dolphins, and why are they the best team in football?I certainly think they can leapfrog the field, but I'm going to keep it tame for now and give them a respectful boost up the ladder.After their annihilation of the Denver Broncos last week, the Dolphins are the 12th team in the last 20 years to be 3-0 SU and against the spread (ATS), but be listed as an underdog in their fourth game. And those previous 11 teams in the same role, they went 2-9 SU and 3-8 ATS as an underdog.Miami is catching between 2 1/2 and 3 from the Bills in Buffalo this week.Let's get started with this week's rankings, which get quite the shake-up after last week's bottom-feeding teams winning:THE UPPER TIER1. Philadelphia (3-0) - The Eagles' 14-point road win in Tampa keeps the defending NFC champs atop the list. This week they host division-rival Washington in a game they have to be careful in not getting trapped. (Last week 1)2. Kansas City (2-1) - I'm not sure what the bigger story was last week, the Chiefs finally breaking out of their offensive shell, or a swarm of Swifties buying Travis Kelce jerseys. Heads-up, Taylor Swift is confirmed to attend this week's game at the Meadowlands. (Last week 2)3. San Francisco (3-0) - If you were to ask me who will be in the Super Bowl representing the NFC, I'd have to say I've been more impressed by the 49ers than the Eagles. This might be the most balanced team in the conference. (Last week 3)4. Miami (3-0) - And if you ask me to name an opponent for the 49ers from the AFC, I think the Dolphins have been the most impressive on the junior circuit with balance on both sides of the ball. This game in Buffalo will tell us plenty. (Last week 6)5. Buffalo (2-1) - The Bills didn't disappoint last week, following their blowout win over Las Vegas with another big showing against the Commanders. As I said above, this visit from the Dolphins will tell us plenty. (Last week 7)6. Cincinnati (1-2) - It was quite telling to see the Bengals respond Monday night, with quarterback Joe Burrow hobbling about. This team could become scary once the offense catches up to its defense. (Last week 8)7. Dallas (2-1) - The Cowboys were the fifth team in the Super Bowl era to score at least 70 points and allow 10 or fewer points through its first two games of a season. Then they lost 28-16 in Arizona. Ouch! (Last week 4)8. Baltimore (2-1) - How the Ravens lost at home to Indianapolis is beyond me. It drives them down a few slots on the rankings, and now they face a tough road test in Cleveland. (Last week 5)9. Seattle (2-1) - After losing the season opener at home, the Seahawks have won two in row, coming from behind to win in Detroit and then blasting Carolina in Seattle last week. A trip to the Meadowlands for a Monday night showdown against the Giants could reveal more. (Last week 11)10. Detroit (2-1) - The Lions responded to a disappointing home loss to the Seahawks by flexing their defensive muscles and shutting down Atlanta. If they plan on taking over the NFC North, the Lions better roar at Lambeau. (Last week 12)11. L.A. Chargers (1-2) - Los Angeles was lucky to come out of the Twin Cities. Some may say this team should be 0-3, but it's all about finding ways to come away with a win. This week should be easier against the hapless Raiders. (Last week 13)12. Cleveland (2-1) - The Browns took care of Tennesee quite easily last week, but this week's visit against Baltimore will be a different story. Something to be said about having one of the stingiest defenses in the league. (Last week 14)13. Green Bay (2-1) - Jordan Love had career highs in completions (22) passing yards (259), and had his first-career game with both a passing and rushing TD in Week 3. Love has a TD pass in each of his first 4 career starts. (Last week 15)14. N.Y. Jets (1-2) - Another loss by the Jets and it's quite clear how tough of a season this will be unless they bring someone in to quarterback the offense. Zach Wilson will make a great QB coach in Provo someday, but he's not the answer for the Jets. (Last week 9)15. Jacksonville (1-2) - Okay, so maybe the Jaguars aren't the next AFC South powerhouse. Shocked by what was one of the two worst teams in the league, the Jags now have to travel abroad. Will they be in the lower tier next week? (Last week 10)16. Pittsburgh (2-1) - The Steelers received an assist from Raiders coach Josh McDaniels last week, there's no doubt about it. But it's hard to argue how the Black and Gold is finding ways to win and could find themselves in first place after Sunday. (Last week 17)THE LOWER TIER: 17. New Orleans (2-1) - Let's see how this team performs while Derek Carr is sidelined. (Last week 16)18. New England (1-2) - The Pats got their first win over a tattered and torn Jets team. They face the angry Cowboys this week. (Last week 23)19. Minnesota  (0-3) - The Vikings' demise is no shock to me whatsoever. See what happens when you play a tough schedule? (Last week 18)20. N.Y. Giants (1-2) - Only dropping the Giants one slot considering they lost to the best team in the NFC. (Last week 19)21. Washington (2-1) - Last week I asked if the Eric Bienemy factor was kicking in with the Commanders? Then they couldn't find the end zone. (Last week 20)22. Atlanta (2-1) - I still don't know what to think of Desmond Ridder. This week's trip to London could reveal plenty. (Last week 21)23. Tampa Bay (2-1) - Only a one-slot drop for a team that lost to the defending NFC champs. (Last week 22)24. Indianapolis (2-1) - Anthony Richardson gets sidelined, and the Colts go into Baltimore and win outright. (Last week 28)25. Las Vegas (1-2) - The Raiders may or may not have the worst coach in the NFL. (Last week 24)26. Denver (0-3) - Winless under Sean Payton and the Broncos just allowed more points in one game than 18 other teams have allowed through three weeks. (Last week 25)27. Tennessee (1-2) - I knew the Titans' overtime win over the Chargers was a fluke. (Last week 27)28. Houston (1-2) - I told you last week the Texans were better than their 0-2 record and that they'd click at some point. They did. (Last week 31)29. Arizona (1-2) - Looks like the Cardinals learned their lesson about blowing a big lead. From disaster vs. the Giants to an upset of the Cowboys. (Last week 32)30. L.A. Rams (1-2) - A short week for the Rams, who travel to Indianapolis for what will be a tough test vs. a Colts team off a win. (Last week 29)31. Carolina (0-3) - The Panthers might find themselves at the bottom of this list within the next few weeks. Things are bad in Charlotte. (Last week 26)32. Chicago (0-3) - I was afraid this was going to happen. I do hope Justin Fields finds a better home. (Last week 30)

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Edmonton Oilers: Could This Be The Year?

by Will Rogers

Thursday, Sep 28, 2023

The Edmonton Oilers have a history of hockey success. Their passionate fans expect their team to be good. Those expectations are realistic given that the Oilers have arguably the best player in the world. Connor McDavid topped the 150 point (64 goals, 89 assists) mark last season. With McDavid expected to have another monster campaign, the Oilers are favored to win the Pacific Division. Can they break through and take the next step?The Oilers have enjoyed plenty of recent regular season success. The postseason has largely been a different story. Last year, they got knocked out in the second round by the Vegas Knights. Before that, they were swept by the Colorado Avalanche in the Western Conference Finals. In each case, the team which defeated them went on to win the Cup.Another strong regular season is in the forecast. The Oilers are projected to reach 105.5 to 106.5 points, depending on which sportsbook one is looking at. McDavid gets most of the headlines but his co-star Leon Draisaitl (52 goals, 76 assists) is also a bigtime producer. The Oilers made some tweaks to the supporting cast and are feeling confident. It seems like McDavid's been around a long time but he's still only 26. He's already done everything except win the Stanley Cup. The Oilers superstar knows that needs to change:  "I think hockey is a team game, but with that being said, all those great guys have won before and it’s certainly something that we’re after in Edmonton ... I certainly feel that the greats have all won and that’s what you have to do." Speaking of "the greats," McDavid was 15 when he first met Pittsburgh's Sidney Crosby. Crosby, now 36, has achieved the ultimate success. He was the first overall pick 10 years before McDavid was drafted number one. Connor would like to meet Crosby again, when it really counts: "I’ll take a Cup Final against anybody. But against Sid, it would be incredible."Draft Kings currently has Edmonton at +1000 to win the Stanley Cup. Call me crazy but I think this just might be the year ... Will Rogers

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Top 10 College Football Rankings - Week 5

by Wayne Root

Thursday, Sep 28, 2023

The PAC 12 Dominates this Poll.   1. USC USC had a very rusty performance coming off a bye week. Although the defense gave up too many big plays against a shaky offense and struggled at times with tackling, this unit did create plenty of havoc (eight sacks and 14 TFL). USC quarterback Caleb Williams still owns a clean line of 300 passing yards per game with 15 TDs and no interceptions. We expect USC to prove why it’s one of the best teams in college football. Now, it's the Trojans turn to face Colorado and take advantage of their talents. 2. Texas The Texas Longhorns have come out of the gate slow a few times this season, but what matters is they’re finishing with victories. The Longhorns are 4-0 for the first time since ’12. Quarterback Quinn Ewers was efficient (18 of 23 for 293 yards and one touchdowns), while the defense dominated (allowed just 4.3 yards per play) in a 38-6 victory at Baylor. The upcoming two-week stretch against Kansas and Oklahoma could allow Texas to take control of the Big 12 race. 3. Oregon The defense allowed just 199 yards and six points to a Buffaloes’ attack that entered Saturday scoring 41.3 points per contest. Total domination. That’s the easiest way to sum up Oregon’s 42-6 win over Colorado. The Ducks rank seventh in the FBS with 232 rushing yards per game, and the defense totaled seven sacks of Shedeur Sanders. The Ducks averaged 7.2 yards per play behind a standout performance from quarterback Bo Nix (28 of 33 for 276 yards). The Ducks face Stanford (/27.5) in Week 5. 4. Ohio St  The Buckeyes won a thriller in South Bend, as running back Chip Trayanum scored a touchdown with one second remaining to secure a 17-14 road victory. We talked about Ohio State's defense, and that's was the substance behind Day's postgame rant after the Notre Dame victory. Quarterback Kyle McCord continued his development with a couple of clutch throws late and finished with 240 yards on 21 completions. Ohio State will have a bye week to prepare for that Big Ten schedule.  5. Florida St The Seminoles beat Clemson 31-24 in overtime. Florida State’s defense surrendered 429 yards and struggled on third downs (six conversions on 14 attempts), but a fumble return for a touchdown by this unit, along with timely plays by quarterback Jordan Travis and receivers Keon Coleman and Johnny Wilson helped the ‘Noles end a seven-game losing streak to Clemson. The two marquee wins are pushing the Seminoles even further up the latest college football rankings. The bad news? Florida State rushed for JUST 22 yards on 22 attempts, a problem that could resurface against an elite front-line defense. 6. Michigan   The Wolverines had a sluggish start against Rutgers but pulled away for a 31-7 victory in coach Jim Harbaugh’s return to the sidelines after a three-game suspension. Quarterback J.J. McCarthy threw for 214 yards on 15 completions. It's the first road game of the season playing at Nebraska. Should Jim Harbaugh be very concerned, Michigan’s schedule sets up for this team to be 9-0 in November when it faces Penn State. That will be the Wolverines’ first test of the season. 7. Georgia The Georgia Bulldogs haven’t been quite as impressive in 2023 as they were a year ago. The Bulldogs have yet to put together a complete performance, but as coach Kirby Smart’s team has showed at several points so far in '23, it can turn it on when needed to put an opponent away. Kirby Smart needs to preach the importance of fast starts this week. Smart’s defense remains one of the best in college football, Carson Beck is proving to be extremely efficient and the three-headed tandem at running back should keep the Bulldogs undefeated through October. Auburn (-14.5) is on deck. 8. Washington   Another week, another elite offensive performance by the Huskies. Washington used 304 passing yards and four scores by quarterback Michael Penix Jr. to crush California 59-32. Should the Huskies be ranked higher? Washington leads the FBS with 593.2 yards per game, and Michael Penix (209.58) has the second-highest passer efficiency rating behind USC's Caleb Williams. Washington faces an improved Arizona (-18.5) in Week 5, so they can't look ahead.  9. Penn St Thanks to a strong effort on both sides of the ball, Penn State thoroughly dominated Iowa in a 31-0 win on Saturday night. The Nittany Lions allowed only 76 yards and limited the Hawkeyes to just four first downs. Quarterback Drew Allar was sharp (25 of 37 for 166 yards and four scores) against one of the Big Ten’s top defenses and guided the Penn State offense to three touchdowns in the second half. Penn State has the other elite Big Ten defense in the mix. The Nittany Lions have allowed 15 points or less in all four of their games, including the shutout against Iowa. Are we under-valuing the Nittany Lions a touch? 10. Utah  Without quarterback Cam Rising for the fourth consecutive game, Kyle Whittingham and the Utah Utes pulled out another victory. Utah continues to grind out victories under the radar. Utah’s defense dominated in a 14-7 victory over UCLA. The Utes limited the Bruins to 243 yards (3.6 yards per snap), recorded seven sacks and 11 tackles for a loss, and allowed just three third-down conversions on 16 attempts. Quarterback Cam Rising continues to rehab a torn ACL, and Nate Johnson continues to do enough to win games in his place. Utah travels to Oregon State as a (+3.5) underdog for a Friday nightmatchup. 

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College Football's Game Five Nosedive

by Tom Stryker

Thursday, Sep 28, 2023

College Football’s Game 5 NosediveAs we approach the halfway point of the college football season, a number of squads have been put on notice.  Are you going to be a pretender or a contender?  With most FBS teams scheduled to play 12 regular season games, that needs to be determined as quickly as possible or it might be too little too late. Before the mid-point of the season hits next week, I researched how well teams did in a game five settings.  There were a number of things that I looked at, but none more important than those schools that owned a critical .500 record.  In my opinion, college teams sitting at 2-2 SU after four games were locked into a must-win situation.  It was my expectation that these squads would do very well both SU and ATS.  The best of what I discovered was far from that. As you know, with the help of my college football database, the same one that was featured in the December 13th, 2010, issue of the ESPN Insider magazine, I’ve been able to isolate and profit from a number of outstanding technical situations that have performed very well.  My “College Football’s Game Five Nosedive” system is one that has made my clients and I a great deal of profit over the years.  Take a look at this beauty. Since 1980, PLAY AGAINST any 2-2 SU game five college favorite priced at -4.5 or more provided they are playing a conference foe and check in without confidence off back-to-back straight up losses.  43-Year ATS Record = 39-13-2 ATS for 75.0 percent  This Week’s Play = MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE Surprisingly, these conference favorites in need of a win to get off the .500 mark continue to tank provided they take the field of battle without momentum off a pair of straight up losses.  After knocking the snot out of South Florida and Houston Christian, Western Kentucky has fallen on hard times in its last two games against Ohio State and Troy.  The knee-jerk reaction would be to jump all over the Hilltoppers thinking they would bounce back.  According to this college system, that is exactly what you don’t want to do.  There is one special parameter that can be added to this situation that really makes it pop.  If our “play against” side was priced as a favorite or a short underdog of +6 or less in its last game, this system falls to a woeful 6-24-1 ATS.  Western Kentucky was a +4-point pooch at Troy last Saturday and the Hilltoppers apply to this negative wagering situation. Good Luck with MTSU plus the points at WKU on Thursday evening.

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Vancouver Canucks Season Preview

by Will Rogers

Thursday, Sep 28, 2023

Vancouver Canucks' fans annually get excited around this time of the year. In late September, their team always provides reason for hope. Yet, year after year, that hope and excitement fades away. Will this season be any different? Vancouver got off to an 0-7 start to its 2022/23 season. Things were bad from the get-go. The Canucks didn't get their first win until 10/27. They ended up missing the playoffs. Again. The last time they made the postseason was 2020. They've been there 28 times in 52 years. The current preseason got off to an ominous start when Vancouver lost 10-0 to Calgary. Coach Rich Tocchet commented: “I know people don’t want to hear it, but it’s a learning experience.”There is reason for hope though. The Canucks have a legitimate star in Elias Pettersson. Vancouver's best player gets it done at both ends of the ice. He finished with 102 points last year. Captain Quinn Hughes anchors a blue line which is stronger and deeper than it's been in recent seasons. The Canucks are counting on a bounce-back season from goalie Thatcher Demko. He was great when the Canucks last made the playoffs but struggled last year. The improvement behind the blue line should help Demko's cause. The Canucks are currently about +1400 to win their division and +2300 to win the West. They're going to be better but they won't be good enough to win the division or conference. They do seem like a solid bet to go over their projected number of 88.5 regular season points though. If they do that, a return to the playoffs is likely in the cards ... Will Rogers

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Big Al's Daily Angle: NFL, NCAAF and MLB Previews and Odds - 09/28/2023

by Big Al Staff

Thursday, Sep 28, 2023

The Thursday sports card features NFL, NCAAF, and MLB action.Week 4 of the NFL regular season kicks off with the Detroit Lions traveling to Green Bay to play the Packers on Amazon Prime at 8:15 PM ET. The Lions raised their record to 2-1 with a 20-6 victory at home against Atlanta as a 3-point favorite last Sunday. The Packers improved to 2-1 with their 18-17 upset victory at home against New Orleans as a 1-point underdog on Sunday. Detroit is a 1.5-point road favorite, with the total set at 46 (all odds from DraftKings).The fifth week in NCAAF college football begins with one game on national television between FBS opponents. Two NCAAF games kick off at 7:30 PM ET. Tulsa hosts Temple on ESPN. The Golden Hurricane have a 2-2 record after their 22-14 upset victory at Northern Illinois as a 4-point underdog last Saturday. The Owls fell to 2-2 with a 41-7 loss to Miami (Florida) as a 22.5-point underdog on Saturday. Tulsa is a 3.5-point favorite with an over/under of 55.5. Western Kentucky plays at home against Middle Tennessee on the CBS Sports Network. The Hilltoppers are on a two-game losing streak after their 27-24 loss at Troy as a 3.5-point underdog last Saturday. The Blue Raiders fell to 1-3 this season with their 31-23 upset loss to Colorado State as a 4-point favorite on Saturday. Western Kentucky is a 6.5-point favorite with a total of 60.5.Jacksonville State is at Sam Houston State on ESPNU at 8 PM ET. The Gamecocks raised their record to 3-1 with their 21-0 victory against Eastern Michigan as a 6.5-point favorite last Saturday. The Bearkats are winless in their first three games after their 38-7 loss at Houston as an 11.5-point underdog on Saturday. Jacksonville State is a 6.5-point road favorite with an over/under of 36.5. Major League Baseball has 11 games on its schedule. The Minnesota Twins are at home against the Oakland A’s at 1:10 PM ET as a -265 money-line favorite with a total of 8.5. The Arizona Diamondbacks visit Chicago to play the White Sox at 2:10 PM ET. Two more MLB games throw out the first pitch at 4:10 PM ET. The Milwaukee Brewers host the St. Louis Cardinals as a -180 money-line favorite with an over/under of 8. The Kansas City Royals play in Detroit against the Tigers as a -115 money-line road favorite with a total of 7. The Pittsburgh Pirates are in Philadelphia to play the Phillies at 6:05 PM ET. The Boston Red Sox play in Baltimore against the Orioles at 6:35 PM ET. The Toronto Blue Jays play at home against the New York Yankees at 7:07 PM ET as a -180 money-line favorite with an over/under of 9. The Miami Marlins travel to New York toplay the Mets at 7:10 PM ET as a -135 money-line road favorite with a total of 8. The Chicago Cubs play in Atlanta against the Braves at 7:20 PM ET. The Los Angeles Dodgers are in Colorado to play the Rockies at 8:40 PM ET. The Seattle Mariners are at home against the Texas Rangers at 9:40 PM ET as a -125 money-line favorite with an over/under of 7.5.

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NCAA FB: 4 Winless ATS Teams Who Might Be Underrated Now

by Kyle Hunter

Wednesday, Sep 27, 2023

I always like to look at perception of teams and gauge when might be the time to sell high or buy low. Today, we’ll take a look at four teams who are winless against the spread so far this year. These are teams that I believe could have value moving forward.  Georgia Bulldogs (0-3-1 ATS) Who would have expected that the number one team in the country would be winless against the spread at this point in the season? Georgia has played a very weak schedule. UT Martin, Ball State, and UAB are all terrible teams. South Carolina is the only pretty good team they have played so far. Georgia screwed around in that game and they were down 14-3 going into the locker room. They flipped the switch in the second half and won. The Bulldogs are just 51st in yards per carry against this weak schedule. They only have five sacks on the season defensively. The Bulldogs stat profile isn’t great. Having said all of this, Georgia is the most talented team in the country. The Bulldogs are going to turn it on at some point.  Michigan Wolverines (0-4 ATS) Here is #2 in the nation! Michigan has typically been a team that crushes weaker opponents. The Wolverines were amazing in the large favorite role in the last six or eight years under Jim Harbaugh. Harbaugh missed the first three games due to his suspension. Maybe that bothered the team and threw off the rhythm a bit. Michigan is still a great team, and the Wolverines are now not thought of as highly in the marketplace. The Wolverines are really strong in the trenches, and that should help them win and cover a lot of games in the poor weather games in the Big Ten. I’m not going to adjust Michigan much at all in my power ratings. Harbaugh’s team will get it going against the spread too.  UTSA Roadrunners (0-4 ATS) UTSA is a team I expected to be very good this year. So far this season I’ve been wrong on this bunch. They are winless ATS on the season, but they have a bye week this weekend and the hope is Frank Harris will be back soon. Harris is a star, but he has been hobbled this year, and the backups had to play against Tennessee. UTSA’s schedule gets much softer later this year. The Roadrunners still play UAB, E Carolina, Rice, and USF at home. UTSA still has a much higher talent level than many of the teams they will play against in this conference. I think we’ll have a chance to buy low on UTSA soon.  Troy Trojans (0-4 ATS) Troy was a covering machine last year. Now, they are 0-4 ATS so far this season. Troy doesn’t have an elite defense like they had last year, but they are still very solid on the defensive end. The Trojans offensive line has been abused by strong defensive lines in the non-conference slate. While it will still be a question mark, there are quite a few weaker defensive lines in the Sun Belt on their schedule the rest of the way. 

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Week 4 College FB Observations: Blue Bloods in Football, Now

by Vegas Writer

Wednesday, Sep 27, 2023

Duke, Kansas, Kentucky and North Carolina.Just saying those school names brings out the Blue Blooded Basketball lover in me.That said, don't look now, but these may not be College Basketball-only schools any longer.The four schools with a combined 23 national championships on the hardwood, each with at least four titles, come into this weekend with a combined 16-0 mark in College Football.Let's start with North Carolina, which is 4-0 behind a steady offense that has scored no less than 31 points in each game this season. And that's come against the 18th-toughest schedule to date, per TeamRankings.com. After splitting their first four games of the season with two each at home and on the road, the Heels are in an advantageous situation of becoming bowl-eligible over the next month, as they'll play three straight in Chapel Hill after enjoying Saturday's bye.Kansas has also provided a steady diet of offense, scoring at least 31 points in all four games, thanks to a power rushing game that is rumbling for the nation's 12th-best 217.8 yards per game. The Jayhawks opened Big 12 play with a 38-27 win over conference newcomer BYU. They've been one of the more efficient teams with a third-down conversion that ranks No. 1 in the country (60.5%) and No. 11 with their Red Zone offense (95.0%).Kentucky has a tough sandwich home game this week, after opening SEC play last week in Tennessee against Vanderbilt. The Wildcats beat the Commodores, 45-28, and now come home to play arch-rival Florida before heading to Athens to play two-time defending champion Georgia next week. If there is an area concern with Kentucky, outside of its defensive efficiency up front, it'll have to clean things up with penalties. The 'Cats rank 116th with 8.0 penalties per game and 108th with 68 penalty yards per contest.Duke's 4-0 start to the season includes its impressive and still-talked-about season-opening win over Clemson, a 28-7 victory that is still reverberating. The Blue Devils' stifling defense could have its hands full this week, though, as it welcomes Notre Dame to town.Here are more College Football Observations heading into Week 5:DOWN TO FIVE - There are just five teams that remain 4-0 ATS this season, including a pair of surprises from Group of 5 conferences.Joining Oklahoma, Oregon and Penn State in the undefeated ranks at the betting window are Liberty and UNLV.It was unsure how Liberty was going to react with coach Huge Freeze leaving for Auburn, but the Flames haven't skipped a beat with an explosive offense that is scoring 40.0 points per game - 16th-highest in the nation. Their 11th-best offense is gaining 501.0 yards per game and now gets to rest before playing back-to-back games against reclassifying teams Sam Houston and Jacksonville State.UNLV is playing well under first-year coach Barry Odom, who has brought an SEC mentality to Rebel Park and produced a winning culture that has the 3-1 Rebels talking bowl eligibility. UNLV has already played two Power 5 teams in Michigan and Vanderbilt, and now opens Mountain West play against an underachieving Hawai'i team. The Rebels are laying -11 to the Rainbow Warriors this week.As for the powerhouses, we're talking about three of the top 15 scoring offenses in the nation. Oregon is scoring a nation's second-best 54.0 points per game, Oklahoma is checking in at No. 4 with 46.8 ppg., and Penn State is scoring 40.5 ppg.Oregon is laying -27 on the road at Stanford this week., Oklahoma is -20 at home against Iowa State, and Penn State is also laying -27 on the road, at Northwestern.RAM TOUGH? - After all that chatter to rile up Colorado, only to lose to the Buffaloes in overtime, the Colorado State Rams responded nicely with a 31-23 road win at Middle Tennessee. Problem is for the Rams and their inconsistent offense that returns to Fort Collins for a tough sandwich home game against Utah Tech is they could be without their top two running backs, Avery Morrow and Kobe Johnson. Bad enough the Rams rank 129th in the nation with 57.3 yards rushing per game, now they may have inexperience in the backfield when hosting the Utah Tech Thunderbirds this week.Utah Tech may be an FCS afterthought, but the T-Birds have had this game circled for weeks, and could prove to be more than a paycheck grab visit. If Utah Tech can get its passing game going against Colorado State's shaky pass defense, it might be wise to peep what should be a healthy underdog line from the extra board.RED ZONE - It's one thing to think about how teams perform in the Red Zone, as it's always important to consider efficiency when a team gets inside the 20-yard line. But it's equally important to see how defensive unis perform in the Red Zone.The Top 5 may shock some people, but it is no surprise if those on that list remain undefeated.The No. 1 Red Zone D is Syracuse, with opponents getting into the zone just four times in nine trips, a 44.4% conversion. The Orange's staunch effort on D should provide them with confidence when hosting Clemson this week.All tied at 50.0% are Power 5 schools Duke, Michigan and Texas. While Michigan has allowed opponents inside the 20 just six times, Duke and Texas have allowed teams to get into the Red Zone 10 times.Rounding out the first five is Sun Belt-member Georgia State, which has seen opponents get past its 20-yard line 13 times, and allowing only seven scores (five TDs, two FGs), a 53.8% clip.CHALK CHECK-IN - Laying between 11 and 14.5 points paid off last week, as favorites in that range went 6-2. Across the regular board games, underdogs edged out the favorites, going 31-29.Underdogs dominated the low-chalk category, covering eight of the 11 games that lines between 1 and 3.5, outside of a couple of pushes.Every week I'll update you with regular board games (no FCS or added), broken down into different point-spread ranges. There were a few pushes this week and a pk'em game to consider, but through Week 4, favorites are 105-103 with the following breakdown: 1-3 1/2 ............ 17-19 4-7 1/2 ........... 27-26 8-10 1/2 ........... 9-10 11-14 1/2 .......... 15-11 15-19 1/2 .......... 10-9 20 and up ...... 27-28

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The MLB Playoff Race Is Going Down to the Wire

by Oskeim Sports

Wednesday, Sep 27, 2023

A lot can happen between now and Sunday, Oct. 1, when the 2023 MLB season comes to an end. If the season ended today, the Braves and Dodgers would have byes in the first round of the NL playoffs and the Orioles and Rangers would own the AL byes. The big questions that need to be answered are the wild card entrants in both leagues. It’s possible that the races in the AL and NL come down to tiebreakers.  Toronto (87-69), Houston (86-71), and Seattle (84-72) are currently vying for the two remaining AL wild card spots. It’s possible that all three or two of the three end the season with identical records. What happens then? That’s where the tiebreaker could come into effect. How Tiebreakers Work in MLB Since 2022, any ties for a division title or for a wild card spot in the postseason have been determined by math. Prior to the MLB playoffs expanding from 10 to 12 teams, any ties were broken by playing a tiebreaker game. Now, ties are broken through a series of tiebreaker rules. The top three elements of breaking a tie are head-to-head record, intra-division record, and record against teams in the same league but in a different division. The head-to-head record comes first. If that doesn’t break the tie, then it’s team records against the other division opponents. Finally, teams would compare records against teams from their league but not in their division. Examples of Tiebreakers in 2023 The most heated wild card race is in the AL where Toronto, Houston, and Seattle have their sights set on the final two playoff spots. Seattle has already clinched the season series against Houston. If they end up tied, the Mariners hold the advantage. Interestingly, Seattle and Toronto each won three games against each other this season. That means the tiebreaker goes to the intra-division record. Seattle’s was 29-17. Toronto went 19-27. That gives the Mariners the advantage over the Blue Jays too. The Orioles hold the advantage over Tampa Bay if the Rays were able to tie Baltimore for the top spot in the AL East. The O’s won the season series 8-5. The Rangers have a 2.5-game lead over Houston and a 4-game lead over Seattle in the AL West. Texas and Seattle play four games to end the season. If they end up tied, Texas holds the advantage due to head-to-head record. The Cubs, unfortunately, are on the losing end of tiebreakers with all the other teams still vying for the NL wild cards. Arizona and Chicago have identical records right now, but the D-Backs hold the tiebreaker advantage. Miami is one game behind the Cubs. The Reds are 2.5 games back. Both teams hold the tiebreaker advantage over the Cubs

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2023-24 NHL Preview: Metropolitan Division

by Sean Murphy

Wednesday, Sep 27, 2023

The NHL preseason is underway and the puck drops for real on the 2023-24 season in two weeks. As we march toward Opening Night on October 10th, I'll run through quick previews of all 32 teams. Here's a look at the Metropolitan Division.Odds to win division courtesy Draft Kings.Carolina Hurricanes (+180)It appeared the Hurricanes were well on their way to a Stanley Cup Final appearance during a deep playoff run last Spring but the Cinderella Panthers had other ideas. Hopes are once again sky-high in Raleigh as Carolina loads up for another run at Lord Stanley's Cup. The Canes cleared out a number of aging players in the offseason including Max Pacioretty, Shayne Gostisbehere, Paul Stastny and Derek Stepan, replacing them with upgrades virtually across the board with the likes of Michael Bunting, Dmitry Orlov and former teammate Tony DeAngelo. Shoring up the blue line was paramount as Carolina's netminding duo of Frederik Andersen and Antti Raanta isn't getting any younger. A return to health for Andrei Svechnikov is critical and all indications are that he'll be ready to go at the start of the season. New Jersey Devils (+240)The Devils rebuild is beginning to pay dividends as they enter the 23-24 season as serious contenders for the Metropolitan Division title after falling just short last Spring. While they didn't make a big splash in free agency, they didn't necessarily have to as the pieces are already in place to take another step forward this season. GM Tom Fitzgerald has done a tremendous job building a roster dotted with young, emerging superstars surrounded by veteran talent. One are of concern could be between the pipes where Akira Schmid enjoyed a breakout postseason. The jury is still out as to whether he can do it over the course of an 82-game season. Veteran Vitek Vanecek remains on board as well but you have to wonder where his confidence level is at after a brutal playoff showing. New York Rangers (+330)As is seemingly the case every single year, the Rangers talent is good enough to match up with any team in the league, let alone their own division. A new era will begin this season with Peter Laviolette taking over behind the bench. While Vladimir Tarasenko and Patrick Kane are two big name rentals that moved on in the offseason, neither made much of a splash in the Big Apple down the stretch last season. The Blueshirts only tinkered with their roster this Summer and the result is a consistent core that should shine for Laviolette right out of the gates. Of course, New York also has arguably the best goalie in the world in Igor Shesterkin who you have to figure is in line for a bounce-back season after recording only average numbers in 22-23 (.916 save percentage and 2.48 goals against average). Pittsburgh Penguins (+700)The Penguins won the Erik Karlsson sweepstakes, bringing on another veteran that can still produce, as he proved during a massive renaissance campaign in 22-23. This could be Pittsburgh's last kick at the can for a while, so to speak, with Evgeni Malkin, Sidney Crosby and Kris Letang - the core three - all nearing the end of their respective careers. Few teams underwent more of an overhaul during the offseason than the Pens, largely due to GM Kyle Dubas coming over from Toronto and putting his stamp on the roster immediately. The issue is, most of the players Dubas brought in, aside from Karlsson, aren't likely to move the needle very much. The Metropolitan Division as a whole remains crowded at the top and you have to wonder whether Pittsburgh has enough gas in the tank to contend over the course of 82 games. New York Islanders (+1500)Despite a lukewarm showing in 22-23, the Islanders did little (virtually nothing, in fact) to bolster their roster heading into the 23-24 campaign. Needless to say, GM Lou Lamiorello is banking on New York's veteran core to lead it back to the promised land. It's not as if the Isles are void of talent. They boast top-end scorers including Mat Barzal and Bo Horvat and do have some young players ready to contribute as well. That's not to mention the fact that they're set in goal with Ilya Sorokin in the conversation with Igor Shesterkin for world's best. It's unlikely Lamiorello will stand pat should the Isles be in contention come March and he does have plenty of draft capital at his disposal to make a splash at the trade deadline if necessary. Washington Capitals (+3000)How the mighty have fallen. It doesn't seem like that long ago that the Capitals were drinking out of the Stanley Cup and now here they are staring up from the bottom of the Metropolitan Division. The list of offseason acquisitions in the nation's capital is short and less than impactful. Ovie's chase for the NHL goal-scoring record will be the most interesting story in Washington this season. Anything can happen of course and franchise fortunes do have a tendency to change on short notice. With that being said, the cupboard isn't particularly well-stocked and a fire sale may not be far off should things go south early in the season. Philadelphia Flyers (+13000)Remember when the Flyers came roaring out of the gates last season? It was all downhill from there as Philadelphia was predictably one of the league's worst teams. It's tough to envision a path back to respectability this season with a number of veterans sent packing and not much coming back in return. GM Daniel Briere will be given plenty of time to get things sorted in the City of Brotherly Love, even if it doesn't sit particularly well with the Broad Street faithful. Expect another year of subtle tanking in an effort to gain additional draft capital after selecting future game-changer Matvei Michkov with the seventh overall selection in this past June's Entry Draft. Columbus Blue Jackets (+18000)It's been a tumultuous stretch for the Blue Jackets as a franchise. First there was the questionable hiring of polarizing head coach Mike Babcock, followed by his subsequent resignation months later. The team will turn over the reins to former Assistant Coach Pascal Vincent and that can only be seen as a positive, surely from the players' perspective. First round draft pick Adam Fantilli has already made a splash at training camp with some predicting that he'll push Connor Bedard in the Calder Trophy race this season. I would suggest pumping the brakes on that notion but do think Fantilli can make an impact right away. With little talent heading out the door and a much-needed blue line boost in the form of Ivan Provorov and Damon Severson, Columbus is in good position to perhaps climb the Metropolitan Division ranks before the turn of the New Year. 

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Big Al's Daily Angle: MLB Previews and Odds - 09/27/2023

by Big Al Staff

Wednesday, Sep 27, 2023

The Wednesday sports card features MLB action.Major League Baseball has 16 games on its schedule. The Arizona Diamondbacks travel to Chicago to play the White Sox at 2:10 PM ET. The Diamondbacks send out Brandon Pfaadt to take the mound to face a White Sox pitcher yet to be named. Arizona is a -175 money-line road favorite, with the total set at 9.5 (all odds from DraftKings). The Miami Marlins play in New York against the Mets in the opening game of their doubleheader at 4:10 PM ET. Braxton Garrett takes the ball for the Marlins to face a starting pitcher yet to be determined for the Mets. Two MLB games throw out the first pitch at 6:10 PM ET. Cleveland hosts Cincinnati, with the Guardians turning to Shane Bieber to pitch against the Reds’ Andrew Abbott. The Guardians are a -130 money-line favorite with an over/under of 8. Tampa Bay plays at Boston, with Tyler Glasnow taking the ball for the Rays to battle Bryan Bello for the Red Sox. The Rays are a -125 money-line road favorite with a total of 8. The Baltimore Orioles play at home against the Washington Nationals at 6:35 PM ET. The Orioles send out Grayson Rodriguez to duel against the Nationals’ Patrick Corbin. Baltimore is a -238 money-line favorite with an over/under of 8.Two MLB games start at 6:40 PM ET. Detroit is at home against Kansas City, with Tarik Skubal getting the ball for the Tigers to face Jonathan Bowman for the Royals. The Tigers are a -198 money-line favorite with a total of 7.5. Philadelphia hosts Pittsburgh with the Phillies tapping Ranger Suarez to go against the Pirates’ Johan Oviedo. The Phillies are a -130 money-line favorite with an over/under of 8. The New York Yankees are in Toronto to play the Blue Jays at 7:07 PM ET. Gerrit Cole takes the mound for the Yankees to face Jose Berrios for the Blue Jays. Both teams are priced at -110 with a total of 7. The Marlins visit the Mets at 7:10 PM ET in the second game of their doubleheader. The Atlanta Braves play at home against the Chicago Cubs at 7:20 PM ET. The Braves send out Darius Vines to pitch against the Cubs’ Jameson Taillon. Atlanta is a -162 money-line favorite with an over/under of 10.5. Two MLB games start at 7:40 PM ET. Minnesota is at home against Oakland, with Pablo Lopez taking the mound for the Twins to battle against Joey Estes for the A’s. The Twins are a -265 money-line favorite with a total of 8.5. Milwaukee hosts St. Louis, with the Brewers sending out Wade Miley to face the Cardinals’ Zach Thompson. The Brewers are a -142 money-line favorite with an over/under of 8. The Los Angeles Dodgers are in Colorado to play the Rockies at 8:40 PM ET.  Emmet Sheehan takes the hill for the Dodgers to duel against Noah Davis for the Rockies. Los Angeles is a -218 money-line road favorite with a total of 11.5. The Texas Rangers visit Los Angeles to play the Angels at 9:38 PM ET. The Rangers turn to Dane Dunning to pitch against the Angels’ Griffin Canning. Texas is a -168 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 9. The Houston Astros play in Seattle against the Mariners at 9:40 PM ET. Framber Valdez takes the ball for the Astros to go against Bryce Miller for the Mariners. Houston is a -125 money-line road favorite with a total of 8. The San Francisco Giants play at home against the San Diego Padres at 9:45 PM ET. The Giants tap Sean Manaea to face the Padres’ Matt Waldron. San Francisco is a -112 money-line favorite with an over/under of 8.5.

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