2025 Preakness Stakes Preview
by Al McMordie
Tuesday, May 13, 2025As seems to be the pattern recently, there will be no Triple Crown winner this year because the Derby winner (Sovereignty) will be skipping the second jewel and pointing towards the Belmont Stakes in three weeks. This latest defection has once again fueled the debate over whether the spacing of the three races (two weeks between Derby and Preakness, followed by three weeks after that for the Belmont) should be changed. It's likely nothing will happen but it seems everyone has an opinion when the Derby winner sits this one out. The other thing notable about this year's Preakness is that it's the 150th running and the last one which will be held at the current structure we call Pimlico. The State of Maryland approved the demolition of the facility to make way for an entirely new structure, so in 2026 (and potentially 2027), the Preakness will be held at Laurel Race Track about 25 miles to the south. All that being said, the race drew nine entrants and we will preview five of the major players, here. #2 Journalism (8-5 morning line) - The Mike McCarthy-trained son of Curlin will be a deserving favorite in the starting gate come Saturday. He really did nothing wrong in besting 17 other horses while finishing 2nd to Sovereignty in the Derby. The winner decided to skip this second leg of the Crown. But McCarthy — who has as much success shipping horses from California as any trainer — deemed Journalism ready to go. Regular rider Umberto Rispoli will be aboard and his odds will likely be no better than 7-5. But Journalism could make that price look like easy money. #1 Goal Oriented (6-1) - “New shooters”, as they’re often referred to, are horses who come into the Preakness not having run in the Derby. And these types have a very good record in the second leg of the Triple Crown. In fact, the last 5 winners have all been new shooters. But Goal Oriented has one main problem and that problem is fair odds. Trained by anyone other than Bob Baffert (who has a record 8 Preakness wins) this son of Not This Time would be at least 10-1 coming off of just a maiden win followed by a first allowance victory in the mud on the Derby undercard. But because Baffert is his trainer (and Flavien Prat is his jockey), you’ll be lucky to get 5-1 and this is a much tougher test than anything he's tried previously. #7 Sandman (4-1): As one of three Derby horses entered in the race (Journalism and American Promise being the other two) this Mark Casse-trained son of Tapit offers a better-priced alternative to the favorite. But he ran a clunker in the run for the roses, finishing 7th, and has only had the two weeks to recover. One has to wonder how much his entry here is due to the ownership group -- which includes popular partnership West Point Thoroughbreds and a major TikTok influencer -- forcing Casse’s hand. There's enough early speed in the race to favor Sandman's late running style, but the jockey switch from Jose Ortiz to John Velazquez is not a good sign if you're rooting for this one. #3 American Promise (15-1): "The Coach” D. Wayne Lukas is arguably the greatest thoroughbred trainer in history and he’s still going strong at age 89. Just about everyone involved in the sport was thrilled when Lukas won last year’s Preakness with lightly-regarded Seize the Grey. That win put Lukas one Preakness victory behind Baffert for the all-time record. Can he reach the pinnacle with this son of (Triple Crown Winner) Justify? Seize the Grey had a ton of early speed which was a perfect setup for him a year ago. That’s not the case with American Promise and this year’s mountain would appear much harder to climb, especially given Lukas’ horse just ran two weeks ago in the Derby. But bet against the Coach at your own risk. #8 Clever Again (5-1): Another new shooter, but this one comes from the barn of the all-time leading trainer (in terms of wins) in North America. Steven Asmussen might be something like 0-37 in the Derby, but he's won this race twice (2007 and 2009), and this year he has a son of Triple Crown Winner American Pharoah who has turned a lot of heads in his two victories. Like Goal Oriented, he's very lightly raced. But unlike Baffert's horse, after Clever Again broke his maiden, he won a stakes race at Oaklawn in his next start, and did it impressively. Jockey Jose Ortiz chose this one over his Derby mount Sandman so that's saying something.Good luck, as always...Al McMordie
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