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MLB: 3 Over Umpires (Batter-Friendly Umpires)

by Kyle Hunter

Wednesday, Jun 19, 2024

Handicapping Major League Baseball means taking a look at a whole bunch of different factors. I closely examine umpires for their tendencies when they are behind home plate. Why wouldn’t you want to consider this information? The home plate umpire has so much control over the game. Today, I want to take a look at three umpires who have a long history of being good for over bettors (hitter friendly). Keep an eye out for these umpires behind the plate. All statistics mentioned below are 5 year averages for the last five full seasons.  Alfonso Marquez (79 Overs 55 Unders) (63.02% of pitches strikes) (9.79 runs per game) Marquez has consistently shown to be a good over umpire over the last few seasons. He ranks among the ten lowest umpires in percentages of pitches called a strike. His strikeout/walk ratio is also a very low 2.39. That is also among the ten lowest in the majors. 59% of games going over the total and all the underlying numbers pointing strongly toward the over is enough to make him a top over umpire.2. Mark Wegner (60 Overs 47 Unders) (63.09% of pitches strikes) (9.97 runs per game) Wegner hasn’t done quite as many games behind the plate as Marquez, but if anything his underlying numbers are even stronger pointing toward an over umpire. Wegner’s strikeout/walk ratio is an extremely low 2.23. This suggests Wegner is very hesitant to ring up batters on that third strike. The last couple years Wegner’s numbers have been even stronger toward the over than the overall five year trend. 3. Edwin Moscoso (73 Overs 43 Unders) (62.75% of pitches strikes) (9.98 runs per game) Moscoso has the single lowest called strikes percentage of any regular MLB umpire during this period. He consistently pinches the strike zone and makes it very tough on pitchers. In this time period, 62.9% of his games have gone over the posted total. His strikeout/walk ratio is a really impressive 2.22. Moscoso is making it really hard for the pitcher to get a called strike three. He is a younger umpire, but he is one to watch.

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Big Al's Daily Angle: MLB and UEFA Euro 2024 Previews and Odds - 06/19/2024

by Big Al Staff

Wednesday, Jun 19, 2024

The Wednesday sports card features MLB and UEFA Euro 2024 action.The Wednesday card in Major League Baseball has 15 games on its schedule. The Atlanta Braves host the Detroit Tigers at 12:20 p.m. ET. The Braves give the ball to Reynaldo Lopez to pitch against the Tigers’ Tarik Skubal. Atlanta is a -130 money-line favorite, with the total set at 7.5 (all odds from DraftKings unless indicated otherwise). The Pittsburgh Pirates play at home against the Cincinnati Reds at 12:35 p.m. ET. Mitch Keller takes the mound for the Pirates to face Hunter Greene for the Reds. Pittsburgh is a -120 money-line favorite with an over/under of 8. The St. Louis Cardinals travel to Miami to play the Marlins at 12:40 p.m. ET. The Cardinals send out Kyle Gibson to go against the Marlins’ Yonny Chirinos. St. Louis is a -165 money-line road favorite at BetMGM with a total of 8. The Philadelphia Phillies are at home against the San Diego Padres at 1:05 p.m. ET. Ranger Suarez takes the hill for the Phillies to battle against Matt Waldron for the Padres. Philadelphia is a -166 money-line favorite with an over/under of 8.5. The Chicago Cubs host the San Francisco Giants at 2:20 p.m. ET. The Arizona Diamondbacks play in Washington against the Nationals at 4:05 p.m. ET. The Diamondbacks tap Brandon Pfaadt to duel against the Nationals’ Patrick Corbin. Arizona is a -162 money-line road favorite with a total of 9.The Cleveland Guardians play at home against the Seattle Mariners at 6:40 p.m. ET. Tanner Bibee grabs the ball for the Guardians to pitch against Bryan Woo for the Mariners. Cleveland is a -135 money-line favorite with an over/under of 7.5. The New York Yankees are at home against the Baltimore Orioles at 7:05 p.m. ET. The Yankees see the season debut of Gerrit Cole, who faces the Orioles’ rookie Cade Povich. New York is a -175 money-line favorite with a total of 8.5. The Toronto Blue Jays host the Boston Red Sox at 7:07 p.m. ET. Kevin Gausman gets the assignment for the Blue Jays to battle against Bryan Bello for the Red Sox. Toronto is a -130 money-line favorite with an over/under of 8. The Minnesota Twins play at home against the Tampa Bay Rays at 7:40 p.m. ET. The Twins tap Joe Ryan to face the Rays’ Taj Bradley. Minnesota is a -166 money-line favorite with a total of 7.5. The New York Mets are in Texas to play the Rangers at 8:05 p.m. ET. Sean Manaea takes the hill for the Mets to duel against Andrew Heaney for the Rangers. Both teams are priced at -110 with an over/under of 8.5. The Houston Astros visit Chicago to play the White Sox at 8:10 p.m. ET. The Astros tap Hunter Brown to face the White Sox’s Garrett Crochet. Houston is a -118 money-line road favorite with a total of 7.5. The Los Angeles Dodgers play in Colorado against the Rockies at 8:40 p.m. ET. Bobby Miller returns from the injured list to take the mound to go against Ryan Feltner for the Rockies. Los Angeles is a -198 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 10.5. The Milwaukee Brewers are in Los Angeles to play the Angels at 9:38 p.m. ET. The Brewers tap Freddy Peralta to duel against the Angels’ Tyler Anderson. Milwaukee is a -175 money-line road favorite with a total of 8.5. The Kansas City Royals travel to Oakland to play the A’s at 9:40 p.m. ET. Cole Ragans gets the ball for the Royals to pitch against Luis Medina for the A’s. Kansas City is a -180 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 7.5.The UEFA Euro 2024 continues with three matches. Croatia plays Albania on FS1 at 9:00 a.m. ET as a -1 goal-line favorite with a total of 2.5 (all soccer odds from BetMGM). Germany faces Hungary on FS1 at noon ET as a -1.5 goal-line favorite with an over/under of 3. Switzerland battles Scotland on Fox at 3:00 p.m. ET as a -0.5 goal-line road favorite with a total of 2.5.

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NFL MVP Wagers

by ASA, Inc.

Tuesday, Jun 18, 2024

Favorite - Joe Burrow (+1000)Injuries have plagued Cincinnati's young QB in two of four years so far. The Bengals have the sixth easiest strength of schedule according to Sharp Football Analysis making 2024 a prime bounce back year for Joey B. Tee Higgins signed his Franchise Tag securing arguably the best WR duo in league for at least one more year. When Burrow has been healthy, he has played like an elite QB, averaging 4.5k yards, 34TDs, and 13INTs in his two full seasons, during which he was also the most sacked QB in the NFL. In those seasons, the Bengals averaged 11 wins and won the AFC North each year. Cincinnati used its first round pick to draft Amarius Mims and also added Trent Brown who will help keep Burrow upright. Teams wins are a huge factor in MVP voting, so with a relatively easy schedule, top notch weapons, and beefed up protection, Burrow is in store for double digit wins once again with stats to justify an MVP case.    Sleeper - Justin Herbert (+2000) Herbert struggled last year as the Chargers took a step back because of injuries and poor coaching. Jim Harbaugh was brought in to right the ship and turnaround the Chargers perennial lack of clutchness. The pressure is off Herbert and no one seems to expect much of Los Angeles after letting Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, and Austin Ekeler walk. New weapons will need to step up but a more spread target share may be what Herbert needs, similar to the way Jordan Love excelled in Green Bay last season. In three healthy seasons Herbert averaged about 4.7k yards, 32TDs, and 12INTs. A major positive to sprinkling money on Herby is his durability, missing only four games in four seasons as a Charger. LA has the second easiest SOS heading into this year and its leader will have full control to change the culture and use his first class arm talent to climb back into the elite QB ranks. Longshot - Jared Goff (+4000)Surprisingly Goff was second in the NFL in pass attempts last season (36 per game), even being in a run first offense. The Lions rolled through the NFC North and nearly went to the Super Bowl which raises the question as to why Goff did not receive one single MVP vote. He finished second in passing yards (4,575), fourth in passing TDs (30), only had 12INTs, and Detroit went 12-5. On top of that, he essentially had the exact same stats in 2022, repeating them for a second straight year and still seems to get disrespected as a system QB. David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs accounted for 23 rushing TDs also taking away some potential stats. The Lions remain the team to beat in the North, building up exactly what Dan Campbell promised. Looking like a top 5 offense once again, Goff has plenty of room for even better stats and maybe some respect in 2024.

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