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Big Al's Daily Angle: NBA, NHL, NCAAB, MLB and EPL Previews and Odds - 04/01/2023

The Saturday sports card features action in NBA, NHL, NCAAB, MLB, and the EPL.The National Basketball Association has two games on its docket. The Miami Heat host the Dallas Mavericks at 7:40 PM ET as a 1-point favorite (all odds from DraftKings unless indicated otherwise). The New Orleans Pelicans play at home against the Los Angeles Clippers at 8:40 PM ET as a 3-point favorite. The National Hockey League has 13 games on its slate. The Nashville Predators are at home against the St. Louis Blues at 1:07 PM ET as a -145 money-line favorite, with the total set at 6. The Boston Bruins travel to Pittsburgh to play the Penguins at 3:07 PM ET as a -135 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 6.5. Five NHL games drop the puck at 7:07 PM ET. The Buffalo Sabres play in Philadelphia against the Flyers as a -120 money-line road favorite with a total of 6.5. The Carolina Hurricanes are in Montreal to play the Canadiens as a -265 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 6.5. The Florida Panthers visit Columbus to play the Bluejackets as a -225 money-line road favorite with a total of 6.5. The Tampa Bay Lightning host the New York Islanders as a -155 money-line favorite with an over/under of 6. The Toronto Maple Leafs play in Ottawa against the Senators as a -140 money-line road favorite with a total of 6.5. The New Jersey Devils are in Chicago to play the Blackhawks at 8:07 PM ET as a -320 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 6.5. The Colorado Avalanche play at home against the Dallas Stars at 9:07 PM ET as a -140 money-line favorite with a total of 6. Four games conclude the NHL card at 10:07 PM ET. The Seattle Kraken are at home against the Los Angeles Kings as a -115 money-line favorite with an over/under of 6. The Vegas Golden Knights host the Minnesota Wild as a -115 money-line favorite with a total of 6. The San Jose Sharks travel to Arizona to play the Coyotes as a -115 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 6.5. The Edmonton Oilers play at home against the Anaheim Ducks as a -475 money-line favorite with a total of 7. The Friday card in Major League Baseball has 15 games on its schedule. The Houston Astros are at home against the Chicago White Sox at 2:10 PM ET as a -125 money-line favorite with an over/under of 8.5. The Toronto Blue Jays visit the St. Louis Cardinals at 2:15 PM ET as a -125 money-line road favorite with a total of 8. Three MLB games throw out the first pitch at 4:05 PM ET. The Atlanta Braves play in Washington against the Nationals as a -255 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 8.5. The New York Yankees host the San Francisco Giants as a -135 money-line favorite with a total of 8.5. The Philadelphia Phillies travel to Texas to play the Rangers as a -125 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 7.5. The Los Angeles Angels are in Oakland to play the A’s at 4:07 PM ET as a -165 money-line road favorite with a total of 8. Five MLB games start at 4:10 PM ET. The Cincinnati Reds play at home against the Pittsburgh Pirates as a -150 money-line favorite with an over/under of 8.5. The Tampa Bay Rays are at home against the Detroit Tigers as a -180 money-line favorite with a total of 7.5. The Minnesota Twins play in Kansas City against the Royals as a -165 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 8.5. The Boston Red Sox are at home against the Baltimore Orioles as a -155 money-line favorite with a total of 9. The New York Mets are in Miami against the Marlins as a -130 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 8. The San Diego Padres host the Colorado Rockies at 8:40 PM ET as a -225 money-line favorite with a total of 8.5. The Los Angeles Dodgers play at home against the Arizona Diamondbacks at 9:10 PM ET as a -260 money-line favorite with an over/under of 8. The Seattle Mariners are at home against the Cleveland Guardians at 9:40 PM ET as a -135 money-line favorite with a total of 7.5. The college basketball schedule has the two games in the Final Four of the men’s NCAA tournament on CBS at NRG Stadium in Houston, Texas. San Diego State battles Florida Atlantic at 6:09 PM ET as a 2.5-point favorite with an over/under of 131.5. Connecticut faces Miami (FL) at 8:49 PM ET as a 5.5-point favorite with a total of 149. Matchweek 29 in the English Premier League begins with seven matches. Manchester City hosts Liverpool at 7:30 AM ET as a -1 goal-line favorite with an over/under of 3 (all soccer odds from BetMGM). Five EPL matches begin at 10 AM ET. Arsenal plays at home against Leeds United on the USA Network as a -1.5 goal-line favorite with a total of 3. Bournemouth is at home against Fulham in a pick ‘em contest with an over/under of 2.5. Brighton and Hove Albion host Brentford as a -1 goal-line favorite with a total of 2.5. Leicester City visits Crystal Palace in a pick ‘em contest with an over/under of 2.5. Wolverhampton is at Nottingham Forest in a pick ‘em match with a total of 2. Chelsea plays at home against Aston Villa on the USA Network at 12:30 PM ET as a -1 goal-line favorite with an over/under of 2.5.

Alabama Lived by the 3 -- and Then It (Predictably) Died by the 3

The Alabama Crimson Tide would probably beat every team in the country if they were making their 3s. They went into the Sweet Sixteen ranked 8th in the nation by taking 47.5% of their shots from behind the arc. If they get hot, then everyone one of their opponents would be in deep trouble.But the thing about head coach Nate Oaks' team, one could say that about another 50 or 100 teams in the country. With "The Analytics" gaining more influence with their ingenious discovery that three points are more than two points, many teams bank their strategy on making 3s. We certainly caught the wrong end of that stick earlier this month fading Arizona State in the play-in game and then Northwestern in the first round of the Big Dance. Being on the wrong end of a red-hot shooting night is simply part of the deal when investing daily in college and NBA basketball. The Crimson Tide were a great team because their defense is so good that it offers them a great Plan B if they are only making an average number of their 3-pointers. But Alabama was not likely to cover big-point spreads against good teams if they are not nailing a high percentage of the 3s they take. They went into their Sweet Sixteen game against San Diego State as a 6.5-point favorite. They were only making 34.1% of their 3-pointers, ranking 272nd in the nation, going into that game — and their proficiency from behind the arc dropped to 33.2% when playing away from home. In their last ten games away from home, they were only making 33.0% of their shots from behind the arc -- and that meant they were actually a little below base-level efficiency in using “math” to their advantage by lauding almost half of their shots from distance. Alabama ranked 344th in the nation in terms of consistency from game to game. The reasoning above was one of the reasons we endorsed San Diego State as our Sweet Sixteen Underdog of the Year. The Aztecs played with a style that could give the Tide fits. San Diego State is a physical team that plays elite-level defense. They will slow the pace to a crawl — using “math” to their advantage by limiting Alabama's scoring chances and letting the pressure of the moment kick in for this number one seed. The Aztecs are loaded with experience with three seniors and two juniors in the starting lineup with depth on the bench. Despite their opponents attempting 40.5% of their shots from behind the arc, ranking 288th in the nation, those shots are only falling at a 28.7% rate which is the fourth-best mark in the nation. In their last ten games on the road, not only did San Diego State hold their opponents to 25.5% shooting from behind the arc, they lead the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Alabama averages 10 made 3s per game from their 30 shots on average from distance. But the Aztecs had covered the point spread in 10 straight games after 15 games into the season against teams averaging 8 or more made 3s per game. San Diego State not only plays with a deliberate pace on offense but their opponents take 18.5 seconds per possession, ranking as the 346th slowest in the nation. The Aztecs crash the glass and outrebound their opponents by +4.9 Rebounds Per-Game — and the Crimson Tide had failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 21 games after 15 games into the season against teams who outrebound their opponents by +4.0 or more RPG. Granted, San Diego State does not use “math” to their advantage on offense since they like to take midrange jumpers — but Alabama’s focus on taking away from shots from 3-point land plays into the Aztecs' hands in this matchup. The Crimson Tide were due for a visit from the Regression Gods in this regard as the 32% their opponents are shooting from midrange deviates significantly from the expected 38% field goal percentage based on national averages from where those shots are being taken. Alabama also ranked 290th in the nation in post-up defense — and they foul too much, ranking 222nd in the nation in defensive foul rate going into that game. San Diego State rewarded our faith by upsetting the Crimson Tide by a 71-64 score. Their perimeter defense frustrated Alabama as the Tide missed 24 of their 27 shots from behind the arc for an 11% shooting percentage from 3-point land. The Aztecs only made 20 of their 52 shots from inside the arc -- yet the advanced analytics do confirm that a 38.4% shooting percentage from 2-point shots does generate more points than making 11% of one's 27 shots from 3-point land (a 40 to 9 margin for those wishing for the math to be spelled out). In the end, Alabama lived by the 3 to earn the top seed in the NCAA Tournament, but this reliance did not offer them a good enough Plan B on the night they faced a good defensive team that was dedicated to thwarting 3-point shooting. The Variance Gods are fickle, indeed, and sometimes that is the most reliable intangible. Best of luck -- Frank.

The Surging Philadelphia 76ers

The Philadelphia 76ers may be flying under the radar in the Eastern Conference playoff race when compared to the Milwaukee Bucks and the Boston Celtics. But the Sixers may prove difficult for either team to beat when they potentially play in the second round of the playoffs and/or the Eastern Conference Finals.With their 117-110 victory at home against Toronto to end the month on March 31st, Philly begins April with a 51-26 record, good for third place in the conference. As a 4-point favorite against the Raptors, the 76ers raced out to a 77-57 halftime lead after outscoring Toronto by a 46-27 margin in the second quarter. Joel Embiid continued his case as the Most Valuable Player in the league by scoring 25 points and pulling down 12 rebounds. In 14 games this month, Embiid is scoring 33.8 points-per-game on 58.9% shooting from the field. He is pulling down 9.3 rebounds-per-game. Philadelphia began the week by extending a mini-losing streak to three games in a 116-111 loss at Denver as a 7-point underdog at Denver on Monday. After finishing that four-game road trip out west, the Sixers returned home determined to tighten things up on the defensive end of the court after allowing the Nuggets to make 50.6% of their shots, the highest opponent’s field goal percentage in their previous five games. The 76ers have played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total after losing two games in a row — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after losing four of their last five games. They responded to that three-game losing streak with a 116-108 victory at home against Dallas as a 5.5-point favorite on ESPN's Wednesday broadcast. They held the Mavericks to 46.8% shooting from the field in the win. Philly had seen a dip in their 3-point shooting going into that game. They were making only 36.6% of their 3-pointers in their previous ten games -- as opposed to their 38.6% shooting mark from behind the arc overall. Hosting the porous Mavericks defense did the trick as the Sixers made 17 of their 36 shots from behind the arc for a red-hot 47.2% clip from 3-point range. They followed that up on Friday night by nailing 12 of their 31 shots from 3-point range for a 38.7% clip. The Sixers have been defending the perimeter better as of late. They returned home on Wednesday ranking second in the NBA by holding their opponents to hit just 32.1% of their 3-pointers in their last ten games. In their last ten games, Philly ranked fifth in the NBA in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency before playing Dallas. The Mavericks shoot a higher percentage of 3s than any team in the league and made 18 of their 46 shots from behind the arc on Wednesday. But Philly neutralized that 39.1% shooting by trading one less made 3-pointer by seizing +11 net points against Dallas at the charity stripe. They then held the Raptors to 8 of 26 shooting from behind the arc for a 30.8% shooting clip to end the month on Friday. After a 1-4 start to the season, the 76ers have posted a 50-22 record which ties the Celtics winning percentage for the season. Philadelphia is lurking as the playoffs get set to start in a couple of weeks. Bettors should take notice.Best of luck -- Frank.

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