- Analysis
- #714 UCLA (-) over Pepperdine at 10:30 PM EST
After posting an 0-2 SU and ATS mark in games against No. 19 Illinois and No. 5 Baylor, UCLA will return home and drop the hammer on this overachieving Pepperdine squad. The Waves make the trek to Pauley Pavilion off three straight home wins over Alabama State, Vanguard, and UC Irvine, and this will be a tremendous challenge for head coach Lorenzo Romar and his troops.
There is a little history in this series that will help our cause. In the last six battles between these two teams, the Bruins have inked a solid 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS record. Also, when hosting an opponent that holds a team won/loss percentage greater than .500 and less than .823, UCLA has been tough to beat inking a rewarding 56-32-2 ATS tally. Lastly, at home checking in off two or more straight up losses, head coach Mick Cronin's boys own a reliable 15-7 SU and 13-8 ATS mark provided their opponent arrives with steam off a straight up win.
Even though Pepperdine has played well lately in its own backyard, backing a Waves bunch that holds a weak 11-26 SU and 14-20-1 ATS mark in their last 37 games isn't going to happen anytime soon. In this situation battling a foe that busts in off a straight up loss, Coach Romar's boys fall to a rough 3-14 SU and 4-13 ATS. Also, in true road games facing an opponent that enters off a straight up loss, Pepperdine owns a timid 10-29 SU and 14-24 ATS including an ugly 0-13 SU and 3-10 ATS if they are priced as a pup of +6 or more.
So far this season, 90.4 percent of the Waves scoring has come from freshmen and sophomores. On the road against an angry Bruins bunch, Pepperdine's youth and inexperience will have problems. Take UCLA. Thanks and best of luck, Tom.
