OSKEIM'S FRIDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL GAME OF WEEK
- Handicapper
- Oskeim Sports
- League
- NCAAF
- Competition
- East Carolina vs BYU
- Release Date
- 10/28/2022 06:50 AM
- Event Date
- 10/28/2022 08:00 PM
- Bet Type
- Point Spread
- Pick
-
East Carolina +3.5 (-110)
(DraftKings)
- Outcome
- Win
- Analysis
- My math model only favors BYU by 1.3 points and the Cougars have failed to cover straight games by an average of 15.7 points per game. BYU returns home off a 41-14 loss to Liberty in which the Cougars were outgained by nearly 300 yards by an injury-riddled offense that was down to its third-string quarterback and missing its top three wide receivers. The Cougars were thoroughly dominated on both sides of the ball, losing by 27 points despite Liberty losing 14.5 points in turnover luck.
BYU’s defense is predominantly responsible for the team’s current three-game slide, allowing 562 total yards and 40 points per game over that span. However, the Cougars’ stop unit has underperformed all season:
BYU’s Defensive Metrics/Rankings
• 95th in yards per play allowed
• 114th in Success Rate Allowed
• 121st in EPA/Play
• 130th in Finishing Drives Allowed
East Carolina running back Keaton Mitchell boasts an 88.9 Pro Football Focus (PFF) rushing grade (16th/398 HB) this season, averaging 6.8 yards per rush attempt (26 carries for 10-plus yards). Mitchell is primed for another productive game against a BYU front seven ranked 123rd in Defensive Line Yards, 113th in Stuff Rate, and 107th in EPA/Rush. Overall, BYU is 122nd in the nation against the run, per PFF.
East Carolina should also be able to move the chains through the air behind senior quarterback Holton Ahlers, who has an 86.5 PFF offensive grade (35th/299 QB) and an 84.8 PFF passing grade (33rd/264 QB). Ahlers is averaging 8.1 yards per pass attempt with only eight turnover-worthy plays and should exploit a BYU secondary ranked 112th in Passing Success Rate Allowed, 114th in EPA/Pass Allowed, and 94th in passing explosiveness allowed.
BYU’s offense has been stuck in neutral, failing to eclipse 300 total yards in two of its previous three games. After posting an 89.2 PFF offensive grade in 2021 (27th/294 QB), BYU quarterback Jaren Hall enters Week 9 with a 77.3 PFF offensive grade (91st/299 QB). Hall averaged just 5.5 yards per pass attempt against Liberty and will struggle against a solid East Carolina secondary ranked 28th in passing explosiveness allowed.
Hall has been hurt by a subpar BYU ground attack that is ranked 106th in Rushing Success Rate and the Cougars will once again struggle to move the ball on the ground against an East Carolina front seven ranked in the top-15 in Defensive Line Yards and Stuff Rate. The Pirates are also 32nd in the country in EPA/Rush Allowed.
With East Carolina standing at 4-1 ATS as a road underdog over the past two seasons, grab the points with the Pirates and invest with confidence.
