25* MLB DIVISIONAL TOTAL OF THE MONTH
- Handicapper
- Hollywood Sports
- League
- MLB
- Competition
- Baltimore Orioles vs Boston Red Sox
- Time
- 09/28/2022 07:10 PM
- Bet Type
- Over / Under
- Pick
-
Baltimore Orioles vs Boston Red Sox Over 9 (-115)
(Consensus 3)
- Outcome
- Loss
- Analysis
- At 7:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Baltimore Orioles (921) and the Boston Red Sox (922) listing both starting pitchers Dean Kremer and Rich Hill. THE SITUATION: Baltimore (80-74) has lost three of their last four games after their 13-9 loss on the road against the Red Sox in the second game of this series. Boston (73-81) snapped their six-game losing streak with last night’s win.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Orioles have allowed at least six runs in four straight games — and they have scored at least six runs in four of their last five contests. The first two games of this series have both seen 22 combined runs after Baltimore won Game One by a 14-8 score. The Orioles have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a loss. Additionally, they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after scoring at least five runs in their last game — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after allowing at least five runs in their last contest. Furthermore, Baltimore has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after allowing at least seven runs in their last two games — and they have played 12 of their last 18 games Over the Total after allowing at least eight runs in two straight games. And in their last 7 games after playing two straight games where at least 15 combined runs were scored, they have then played 6 of those games Over the Total. They have played 20 of their last 31 road games Over the Total against division opponents — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against teams with a losing record. Kremer gets the ball tonight with an 8-5 record with a 3.07 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP in 20 games (19 starts). The deeper sabermetrics call for regression with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.42 and 4.28 moving forward. And while the right-hander has a 2.67 ERA, a 1.12 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .237 when pitching at home, those numbers rise to a 3.47 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .282 in 10 starts on the road. Baltimore has played 3 of their last 4 road games Over the Total with Kremer pitching with the Total set in the 9-9.5 range. Boston has played 5 straight Overs against right-handed starting pitchers. The Red Sox have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after allowing at least five runs in their last game — and they have played 21 of their last 31 games at home Over the Total after a game where at least 15 combined runs were scored. They have played 4 straight games at home Over the Total — and they have played 25 of their last 36 home games Over the Total in September. They have also played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. They counter with Hill who has a 7-7 record with a 4.65 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP in 24 starts. The veteran lefty seems to be wearing down as the season closes since he has allowed four or five runs in four of his last five starts. In his last five starts, he has a 5.96 ERA, a 1.72 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .305. He has been less effective at home where he has been saddled with a 5.87 ERA, a 1.52 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .293 in 10 starts as opposed to his 3.80 ERA, a 1.22 WHIP, and a .240 opponent’s batting average in his 14 starts on the road. Boston has played 11 of their last 17 games at home Over the Total with Hill priced as a -110 or higher favorite.
FINAL TAKE: Manager Brandon Hyde is going with a right-handed dominant starting lineup tonight against Hill — and Baltimore is scoring 7.4 Runs-Per-Game in their last seven games with a .306 batting average, a .354 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .900. 25* MLB American League East Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Baltimore Orioles (921) and the Boston Red Sox (922) listing both starting pitchers Dean Kremer and Rich Hill. Best of luck for us — Frank.
