Nelly’s AL East Total Delivery 9-4 L10 days
- Handicapper
- Nelly's Sports
- League
- MLB
- Competition
- New York Yankees vs Toronto Blue Jays
- Time
- 09/28/2022 07:07 PM
- Bet Type
- Over / Under
- Pick
-
New York Yankees vs Toronto Blue Jays Over 7.5 (-115)
(DraftKings)
- Outcome
- Win
- Analysis
- Yesterday’s game between New York and Toronto had seven runs through six innings but a scoreless final three innings. There were 19 hits in the game and 16 at-bats with runners in scoring position but only three combined extra-base hits. Jameson Taillon navigated base runners throughout the game for his 14th win while the Toronto bullpen used three top relievers for significant pitch counts to stay in the game. Incredibly three base runners were thrown out on outfield assists for a rarity and there were also two double plays as another run or two deserved to come across. Today’s total is priced below 8.0 thanks to Gerrit Cole being on the mound. Cole has an elite CSW% of 31.8 percent, but he has been inconsistent down the stretch including a 4.20 ERA since the All-Star break and a 4.94 ERA in September. He has allowed seven runs in fewer than 12 innings vs. Toronto this season and has allowed four or more runs in each of his last three starts while allowing three or more runs in eight of his last 12 starts. Mitch White has a 5.12 ERA on the season with a 23.8 percent CSW% in great contrast to Cole and his numbers have been worse since leaving the Dodgers. A desperation pickup from the Jays, he has a 7.39 ERA in eight appearances since joining the Blue Jays in August, allowing three or more runs in five consecutive appearances with just one quality start. He has a low home run rate which can be helpful in this pairing, but he can’t be counted on for a deep outing. Toronto has a 5.26 ERA from its bullpen in the past 10 games while New York has a 4.42 bullpen ERA in that span as last night’s empty final three innings was an unexpected outcome. In the past two weeks the Yankees have an .825 team OPS and Toronto has a .772 team OPS while in the past 10 games New York has scored 6.6 runs per nine and Toronto 5.7 runs per nine. While the head-to-head series has had slightly below average scoring between these teams, this should again be a favorable pairing for both offenses and the missed opportunities of last night’s game are unlikely to be repeated.
Thank you for playing with Nelly’s and Best of Luck.
