- Analysis
- #891 MICHIGAN ST (+) over Wisconsin at 9 PM EST
Off a surprising two-point home loss to Northwestern and a string of three ATS blemishes, look for Michigan State to upset Wisconsin in Mad-Town on Friday night. The Badgers enter this contest on a red-hot 7-0 SU and 5-2 ATS run and Wisky is ripe for a beating of its own.
If the loss to the Purple Cats won't have Sparty focused and ready for this contest, then double revenge motivation will do the trick. MSU owns a dismal 0-2 SU and ATS mark in the last two meetings in this series and, fortunately, a 14-6 SU and 13-7 ATS in the last 20 battles overall. Equally impressive, when coming off a straight up home loss, head coach Tom Izzo's boys have responded by inking a tremendous 43-21 SU and 39-21 ATS record in their next game including an elite 16-4 ATS in this setting provided they are matched up against a Big 10 foe that holds a conference won/loss percentage of .501 or better. With those two parameters live and State fighting an opponent that hits the hardwood with confidence off a straight up win, this team trend explodes to a nearly perfect 14-1 ATS.
It's never easy fading UW inside the Kohl Center. However, the Badgers are locked into one of their worst team roles here. At home checking in off a true road game and going into revenge, UW has struggled notching a feeble 20-39-1 ATS record in its last 60 lined battles. In this setting holding a pointspread won/loss percentage of .501 or better, head coach Greg Gard's boys fall to a woeful 9-27 ATS including a stiff 2-11 ATS if they are priced as a single-digit favorite. Also, in Madison hitting the hardwood off a straight up road win by six points or more, the Badgers hold a soft 19-33-3 ATS tally including a rough 5-17 ATS in this situation if they are facing a foe that enters off a straight up loss.
Early season wars against Baylor, Kansas, and Connecticut will finally payoff for MSU when it hits the conference road against No. 8 Wisconsin tonight and at No. 17 Illinois on Tuesday. Off the loss and with time to prepare for this double-revenge war, Coach Izzo will have his boys ready to compete. Take Michigan State. Thanks and best of luck, Tom.
