Nelly’s Pac-12 Showcase 72% SATURDAY RUN
- Handicapper
- Nelly's Sports
- League
- NCAAF
- Competition
- Oregon vs UCLA
- Time
- 10/23/2021 03:30 PM
- Bet Type
- Point Spread
- Pick
-
Ucla -1 (-110)
(Caesars)
- Outcome
- Loss
- Analysis
- Oregon is still ranked 10th in the AP Poll but the Ducks should be heavily downgraded from the great start to the season. While Oregon is not far from still being 6-0 few teams have been as negatively impacted with key injuries and the Pac-12 schedule so far has featured three of the worst teams in the conference with both wins coming at home vs. the two remaining winless Pac-12 teams. The 22-point win over Arizona featured five turnovers in favor of Oregon to hide a production deficit while last week Oregon trailed 17-10 vs. California in the fourth quarter before sneaking out a win. The yardage in Oregon’s Pac-12 games has been very close to even at just +70 while in contrast, UCLA is +279 in going 3-1 with three Pac-12 road wins already this season. UCLA’s home loss to Arizona State was a misleading result with late scoring from the Sun Devils and UCLA has surprisingly turned in top tier defensive numbers against the run this season allowing only 3.2 yards per rush through a difficult schedule. These teams both have excellent rushing averages as that defensive edge could be paramount in this matchup. Dorian Thompson-Robinson is also the top rated quarterback in the Pac-12 while Anthony Brown is seventh with the veteran UCLA quarterback averaging 8.5 yards per attempt. This game obviously carries significant weight for Chip Kelly and his team had a great effort in this game last season against the eventual Pac-12 champions, losing as a nearly three-touchdown underdog in Eugene. The host has won six of the past seven in this series and UCLA had four turnovers in last season’s game including a pick-6 as it was a very even game statistically with UCLA actually +40 in yardage and the dramatically superior rushing team. That could hold true again this season and while this is a significant price adjustment, the Bruins have looked worthy of this valuation with the inflated ranking for the Ducks built on one big early season win when the roster looked much different.
Thank you for playing with Nelly’s and Best of Luck.
