ASA MLB Contrarian Total Rout 75% / 73% / 67%
- Handicapper
- ASA, Inc.
- League
- MLB
- Competition
- Houston Astros vs Colorado Rockies
- Release Date
- 07/01/2025 02:10 PM
- Event Date
- 07/01/2025 08:40 PM
- Bet Type
- Over / Under
- Pick
-
Houston Astros vs Colorado Rockies Over 11 (-116)
(BetOnline)
- Outcome
- Draw
- Analysis
- #927/928 ASA PLAY ON Over 11 Runs – Houston Astros at Colorado Rockies, Tuesday at 8:40 PM ET - In the earliest of totals posted on this game there was even some 12 on there. It quickly was an 11.5 and now it is mostly an 11 everywhere as of 1 PM ET Tuesday and we love the extra line value here after all this movement. The Astros Colton Gordon has a 3-1 record and a 3.98 ERA in his 8 starts this season but that seems to be the focus of the betting markets here. A closer look shows that the rookie Houston hurler is getting hit at a .287 clip this season and now goes to a ballpark, Coors Field, where hits can quickly turn into bigger hits in the thin air of Denver. Also, this ballpark is known for being unkind to rookie pitchers making their first career appearances here. Rockies starter Chase Dollander certainly knows that first-hand as the Colorado rookie is struggling this season as he has a decent 4.25 ERA on the road but an ugly 8.54 ERA in his home starts. The Rockies last two home games were low-scoring losses against tough Dodgers pitching but, prior to that, Colorado's stretch of 8 home games before those two saw them score an average of 6 runs per game here! Houston is on a 14-4 run and the Astros have scored 5.5 runs per game in that stretch. Now, in a ballpark like Coors Field, they are likely to score more than that average! Our computer math model projects a total of 13 to 14 runs here and even if it only gets to 12 that is still a winning ticket for us. We are going with the Over in this one.
