25* FIFA CLUB WORLD CUP MATCH OF THE MONTH!
- Handicapper
- Hollywood Sports
- League
- SOCCER
- Competition
- Al Hilal vs Manchester City
- Release Date
- 06/30/2025 08:34 PM
- Event Date
- 06/30/2025 09:00 PM
- Bet Type
- Goal Line
- Pick
-
Manchester City -1.5 (-125)
(Consensus Line)
- Outcome
- Loss
- Analysis
- At 9:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Manchester City (238018) minus the goal-line versus Al Hilal (238017) in the Round of 16 of the FIFA Club World Cup. THE SITUATION: Manchester City (W3-D0-L0) swept their three matches in the group stage of this tournament with their 5-2 victory against Juventus on Thursday. Al Hilal (W1-D2-L0) claimed second place in Group H with their 2-0 victory against Pachuca on Thursday. This match is being played on a neutral pitch at Camping World Stadium in Orlando, Florida.
REASONS TO TAKE MANCHESTER CITY MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: Man City was the most dominant side in the group stage of this event. They were the only club to win all three of their matches. Their 13 goals were the most of any team — and their +11 net goal differential was also the top of all in the competition. The Sky Blues underachieved this season by finishing third in the English Premier League and exited the Champions League in the Round of 16. But everything changed for manager Pep Guardiola’s side when reigning Ballon d’Or winner Rodri suffered a ruptured ACL that kept him out for almost the rest of the season. Without the star midfielder, the glue in the middle of the defense was gone. But now he is back on the pitch and playing at a high level — and the team made several impact transfers this year to bolster their defense. The team also has striker Erling Haaland back after an injury-prone season. Haaland scored in the Citizens dominate victory against Juventus who are consistently one of the best defensive sides in the world. Man City generated 3.92 expected Goals (xG) while avenging a loss to Juventus in the group stage of the Champions League. The rhythm and chemistry is back and looks as good as it has since the start of the 2024-25 season. Defensively, the Sky Blues have only given up two goals — and of the 22 shots they have conceded in their three matches, only three of them were High-Value shots with a 0.2 or higher xG. Just seven of those 22 shots even registered at 0.1 or higher xG — so a vast majority of the shots they are surrendering are of low quality. Guardiola’s possession tactics are wearing down their opponents. They lead the competition with a 92.8% pass completion rate — and they lead all teams with 337 progressive carries. Their constant pressure has resulted in 21 corner kicks including at least six in all three of their matches. They are riding a five-match winning streak in all competitions. Al Hilal is unbeaten in their last eight matches across all competitions — but their victory against Pachuca was their lone victory in this competition. This Saudi Arabia side is perhaps the crown jewel of the nation’s significant financial commitment to soccer. There are plenty of stars on this squad — but like MLS in the US, most of these players took the money as they entered the twilight of their careers. They have a world-class manager in Simone Inzaghi who took Inter Milan to the finals of the Champions League last month. He is emphasizing defensive tactics and scoring on the counter-attack. But those ambitions took a huge hit on Thursday when attacking midfielder Salem Al-Dawsari suffered a hamstring injury that will keep him out for six weeks. Not only will the Blue Waves miss his scoring prowess, but they will also be lacking in leadership not having their captain on the pitch. Al Hilal has only given up one goal in this competition with two clean sheets — but they have surrendered 4.3 xG. They have an impressive 1-1 draw against Real Madrid — but they surrendered 2.64 xG in that opening match and lost the xG battle by -0.78. While the Blue Waves have plenty of world-class professionals on the pitch (albeit in the second halves of their careers), their offensive threats lack clinical finishing skills. As a team, their shot accuracy rate is just 21.1%. Their striker Marcos Leonardo along with Al-Dawsari has only scored one goal on 3.3 xG — and that is probably more a reflection of their shot-making than bad luck (and now Dawsari is out). As a team, they rank 20th by only generating 0.11 Shots Per Possession — so not being accurate on these limited chances really hurts. They are only generating 1.3 High-Value shots (0.2 xG or higher) per match.
FINAL TAKE: This is Al Hilal’s just second match ever against an English Premier League side. They will want to grind out a low-scoring match — but if and when Man City scores, they will have to abandon that approach which should create more good scoring opportunities for the EPL giants. The Sky Blues have enjoyed a lead 89% of the time in this tournament. They are also very motivated to win this event after going not winning a trophy for the 2024-25 season. 25* FIFA Club World Cup Match of the Month with Manchester City (238018) minus the goal-line versus Al Hilal (238017). Best of luck for us — Frank.
