TDG’s MLB DIVISION GAME OF THE MONTH
- Handicapper
- Team Del Genio
- League
- MLB
- Competition
- Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves
- Release Date
- 06/28/2025 06:15 PM
- Event Date
- 06/28/2025 07:15 PM
- Bet Type
- Moneyline
- Pick
-
Atlanta Braves -150
(BetMGM)
- Outcome
- Win
- Analysis
- Our 25* MLB National League East Game of the Month is with Atlanta with the money line versus Philadelphia at 7:15 pm et.
The Atlanta Braves got shut out for the second straight game after a 13-0 loss at home against the Phillies in the opening game of this weekend's series. The Braves have won eight of their last twelve games at home after getting upset by a division opponent in their previous game. They have been a disappointment so far this season with a 37-44 record, yet most of their struggles have been on the road where they have a 15-28 record. Back home at Truist Park, Atlanta has a 22-16 record, and they have won thirteen of their eighteen games at home this year when the oddsmakers installed the over/under at 8 or 8.5. They have a .254 batting average at home with a .324 on-base percentage and a .395 slugging percentage. The Braves thrive in these home games against division opponents where they have won nine of those thirteen games this year. They have a .276 batting average at home against the NL East with a .349 on-base percentage and a .403 slugging percentage. If momentum in baseball lasts only as long as the next day’s starting pitcher, then Atlanta is in good shape tonight with Spencer Schwellenbach on the hill. The right-hander has a 6-4 record with a 3.21 era and a 0.99 whip in sixteen starts. He has been remarkably consistent with a 3.41 era in April, May, and June, although, in his last six starts, he has a 2.77 era and 0.90 whip. Much of his consistency comes from simply limiting his mistakes. He is only walking 4.2% of opposing batters which ranks in the highest 96th percentile. He also gets batters to chase his pitches 34.3% of the time which ranks in the top 94th percentile.
The Phillies had only scored one combined run in their three previous games before their 13-run outburst on Friday. On the road, they are only hitting .240 with a .312 on-base percentage and a .382 slugging percentage. They have only won nine of their last twenty-eight games against National League pitchers with a whip of 1.25 or better. They have pulled off upsets in only three of their last eleven games on the road when the oddsmakers installed them as an underdog. Jesus Luzardo is their starting pitcher tonight as he continues a perplexing season. The left-hander has a 7-3 record along with a 4.08 era and a 1.37 whip in sixteen starts. In his last five starts, he has a 9.66 era and a 1.93 whip due to two disastrous starts when he gave up 12 runs against Toronto and eight runs against Milwaukee. His velocity has not taken a dip which has many observers speculating he was tipping his pitches. Yet the southpaw is vulnerable since hitters tend to make good contact against him. The average exit velocity of the batted balls against him is 89.6 miles per hour, ranking in the lowest 49th percentile. Hitters are achieving a hard-hit rate of at least 95 miles per hour 41.0% of the time, ranking in the lowest 49th percentile. He did pitch 6 2/3 scoreless innings in his most recent start against the Mets, yet in his start before that he gave up four earned runs in five innings at Miami in a start where he walked four batters and gave up six base hits. Inconsistency may be what to expect from him for the rest of the summer. The Braves have won nine of their last eleven games when playing with revenge from an upset loss at home to their opponent. Play Atlanta with the money line.
Good luck - Team Del Genio.