TDG’s MLB WEDNESDAY VEGAS *JACKPOT*
- Handicapper
- Team Del Genio
- League
- MLB
- Competition
- Philadelphia Phillies vs Miami Marlins
- Release Date
- 06/18/2025 06:35 PM
- Event Date
- 06/18/2025 06:40 PM
- Bet Type
- Moneyline
- Pick
-
Philadelphia Phillies -164
(BetOnline)
- Outcome
- Win
- Analysis
- Our 20* MLB Wednesday Vegas Jackpot is with Philadelphia with the money line versus Miami at 6:40 pm et.
The Miami Marlins were installed as +145 money line underdogs last night in the second game of their series with the Phillies, yet they pulled off an 8-3 upset. They have only won twice in their last seven games when following up an upset loss to a division opponent. They have won six times in their last nineteen games at home after winning their previous game. The Marlins have won four of their last five games yet they remain in last place in the NL East with a 29-42 record. They are 15 games behind the New York Mets who are in first place in the division. They have MLB’s third-worst run differential at -86. They have won just six of their last twelve games at home in June including only once in their six games at home this month. They have five wins in their last seventeen games at home against winning teams. They called up Adam Mazur from the minor leagues to make his first start for them at the MLB level. He was given eight starts with the San Diego Padres last season yet he posted a 1-3 record with a 7.49 era and a 1.81 whip. He only struck out 13.9% of the batters he faced last year yet walked 13.3% of opposing hitters. At the triple-a level for the Marlins this year, he has a 3-4 record with a 3.62 era and a 1.22 whip. His strikeout-to-walk ratio has been better in the minor leagues this year, yet there is plenty to be concerned about. His strand rate this year in the minors has been 79.9%, yet he left only 64.1% of runners on base last year. The batting average of the balls minor league hitters put into play against him was .277 after that number was .318 against major league hitters last year. Facing this hot Phillies lineup will be a much tougher challenge tonight. In the last week, Philadelphia has averaged 6.0 runs per game in five games with a .296 batting average, a .372 on-base percentage, and a .491 slugging percentage.
Philadelphia had won five games in a row before last night’s loss. With a 43-30 record, they are in second place in the NL East, two games behind the Mets. They have a +31 run differential which is the tenth best in MLB. The Phillies have won fourteen of their last twenty-one games on the road when the oddsmakers installed them as a money line favorite priced at -125 or higher. Ranger Suarez is their starting pitcher tonight. The left-hander began the season on the injured list with a back injury that curtailed his season last year. In his first start of the season, he got hit hard for seven runs in 3 2/3 innings against Arizona. In his seven starts since, he has posted a 5-0 record with a 1.16 era and a 0.96 whip. Suarez had a similar start last year when he registered a 9-0 record with a 1.36 era and a 0.79 whip in his first 66 innings before a sore back impacted his pitching and eventually put him on the injured list. He ended last year with a 12-8 record with a 3.46 era and a 1.20 whip in twenty-seven starts. He is thriving right now, and when he is at his best, he is limiting hard contact. He has a ground ball rate of 54.8% of the batted balls against him which ranks in the top 90th percentile. The average exit velocity of the batted balls against him is just 85.8 miles per hour, ranking in the top 95th percentile. The number of these batted balls reaching a hard-hit rate of 95 or higher miles per hour is just 28.8%, ranking in the top 98th percentile. Opposing hitters are getting a barrel rate of just 2.1% of their batted balls against him, ranking in the top 98th percentile. The Marlins average only 3.9 runs per game at home this year. They have a .247 batting average at home with a .319 on-base percentage and a .371 slugging percentage. Play Philadelphia with the money line.
Good luck - Team Del Genio.
