BIG AL's RED-HOT BELMONT STAKES WINNER!
- Handicapper
- Al McMordie
- League
- HORSE RACING
- Competition
- Belmont Stakes
- Release Date
- 06/05/2025 02:43 AM
- Event Date
- 06/07/2025 07:00 PM
- Bet Type
- Moneyline
- Pick
-
#5 Crudo (WIN, SHOW) +1500
(DraftKings)
- Outcome
- Loss
- Analysis
- At approximately 7:04 pm, on Saturday, our selection in the 157th running of the Belmont Stakes (race #13 at Saratoga) is #5, Crudo to WIN and SHOW. Please place equal amounts on those two wagers. And also please note that we are not playing Crudo to "place" -- only WIN and SHOW. Todd Pletcher knows a thing or two about winning this race. After all, he's done it four times -- most recently with Mo Donegal just three years ago. He sends two runners out in this year's edition of the Belmont Stakes -- to be run as it was last year at Saratoga Race Course at 1 1/4 miles as opposed to the normal 1 1/2 miles at Belmont Park. One of these runners, Uncaged, is likely to be the longest shot on the board on Saturday and even the owners and Pletcher admit that putting him in this race was a stab in the dark at best. But the other one is an up-and-coming 3YO named Crudo. And this one has the talent -- if still lacking the seasoning -- to win today and be a great horse going forward. This son of Triple Crown winner Justify had arguably the most impressive performance on "Preakness day" three weeks ago when he beat six others in the $100,000 Sir Barton Stakes, pulling away to win by 7 1/2 lengths. Among his competitors that day was a highly-thought-of colt named Invictus. The Brad Cox-trainee went off as the 1-2 favorite in what was supposed to be his coronation and possible lead-up to a Belmont entry but all Crudo did (at 7-2 odds) was leave him in his wake. Most importantly, Crudo has the running style that could really benefit him on Saturday. Saratoga's dirt track is known to favor early speed and "pressers" -- those that are close to the early pace -- at the detriment of the closers (those that come from far out of it). The likely three favorites in the Belmont are all closers or horses that run on at the end. And the only other early speed in the race, it would seem, is the Bob Baffert-trainee Rodriguez. If Crudo can stay close to the front with Rodriguez early, he might have things his own way when they turn for home with the closers not having enough track left to catch him. At what should be very juicy odds (the morning line is 15-1), it's definitely worth finding out whether Crudo can play with the big boys, as he's yet to try Graded Stakes company. His regular rider John Velazquez is back on board Crudo today and Johnny V (as he's known) knows something about winning this race, having done so twice before (2007 and 2012). And few jockeys know New York racing as well as Velazquez does. We have to acknowledge that both Journalism (who we cashed in the Preakness) and Baeza (who finished 3rd in the Kentucky Derby -- a race we cashed with Sovereignty) are more than capable of winning today, but their short odds make all the difference in the world for me (the morning line odds are 8-5 on Journalism and 4-1 on Baeza). I may sprinkle a little money on Baeza and Journalism in a 3-horse exacta box with Crudo. But our play here is the longshot Crudo. Play #5 Crudo to WIN and SHOW (in equal amounts) in the 157th running of the Belmont Stakes, race #13 at Saratoga. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
