TDG’s MLB MONDAY NIGHT VEGAS *JACKPOT*
- Handicapper
- Team Del Genio
- League
- MLB
- Competition
- San Diego Padres vs San Francisco Giants
- Release Date
- 06/02/2025 07:36 PM
- Event Date
- 06/02/2025 09:45 PM
- Bet Type
- Moneyline
- Pick
-
San Francisco Giants -170
(BetOnline)
- Outcome
- Loss
- Analysis
- Our 20* MLB Monday Night Vegas Jackpot is with San Francisco with the money line versus San Diego at 9:45 pm et.
The San Francisco Giants have won two of their last three games after a 5-3 victory against Colorado on Sunday. The Giants’ 33-26 record puts them in third place in the National League West, three games behind the Los Angeles Dodgers and two games behind the Padres who have played and lost two fewer games than San Francisco. Yet the Giants have a +42 net run differential and San Diego has only outscored their opponents by +16 net runs (with two fewer games). San Francisco has a 17-9 record at home at Oracle Park, and they have won ten of their fifteen games at home when the oddsmakers installed them as a money line favorite at -125 to -175. Logan Webb is their starting pitcher tonight. The right-hander is having an outstanding season and deserves better than a 5-5 record in his twelve starts. He has a 2.82 era and a 1.21 whip. His strikeout rate of 27.9% is the highest of his career. His good numbers exist despite the batting average for the balls put into play against him being .347 which is the highest of his career. The MLB babip average is .289 and there is little reason why Webb’s babip should be in that range for the rest of the season. The Giants have won fifteen of their last eighteen games at home when the oddsmakers installed them as a the money line favorite with Webb pitching against a division opponent. He gets a slumping Padres lineup that has a .212 batting average, a .293 on-base percentage, and a .339 slugging percentage in the last week over six games.
San Diego won for the fifth time in their last seven games after their 6-4 win at home against Pittsburgh on Sunday. After finishing that six-game home stand, they begin a seven-game road trip tonight. The Padres have a 20-10 record at home yet are just 13-14 on the road. They have a .251 batting average, a .306 on-base percentage, and a .389 slugging percentage on the road. They have only pulled off two upsets in their seven games this season when the oddsmakers installed them as a money line underdog priced from +150 to +200. They have beaten only four of their last fourteen games on the road against opponents winning 54% to 62% of their games. Stephen Kolek is their starting pitcher tonight. He has a 3-1 record in five starts with a 4.11 era and a 1.30 whip. The big concern with the right-hander is that he ranks in the lowest one percentile according to the analytics at the Baseball Savant with opposing hitters getting a hard hit rate of 95 or higher miles per hour on 53.2% of the batted balls against him. He is an extreme ground ball pitcher with 56.45 of the batted balls against him being grounders. He only strikes out 18.6% of opposing hitters which ranks in the lowest 27th percentile, and his whiff rate of 17.9% of his pitches ranks in the lowest ninth percentile of MLB pitchers. Kolek just puts too many hard-hit balls into play to consider him reliable right now. San Francisco has won fifteen of their last eighteen games at home against opponents using a right-handed starting pitcher. The Giants’ bullpen is one of the best in MLB with a 2.42 era, a 1.05 whip, and a save percentage of 73.9% of their opportunities. San Diego has won three of their last nine games on the road against opponents with a bullpen era of 3.45 or better. Play San Diego with the money line.
Good luck - Team Del Genio.
