TDG’s NBA ROUND 3 PLAYOFF GAME OF THE YEAR
- Handicapper
- Team Del Genio
- League
- NBA
- Competition
- Minnesota Timberwolves vs Oklahoma City Thunder
- Release Date
- 05/28/2025 06:21 PM
- Event Date
- 05/28/2025 08:43 PM
- Bet Type
- Point Spread
- Pick
-
Oklahoma City Thunder -8 (-110)
(DraftKings)
- Outcome
- Win
- Analysis
- Our 25* NBA Round 3 Playoff Game of the Year is with Oklahoma City minus the points versus Minnesota at 8:40 pm et.
The Oklahoma City Thunder have the opportunity to close out this series tonight. In the last eighteen Game 5s in the Conference Finals, the higher seed has won and covered the point in thirteen of those games, and all eighteen outright winners also covered the point spread. In the last thirty-nine potential closeout games in the Conference Finals, the outright winner in those games also posted a 36-2-1 record against the spread. This history makes us more comfortable laying the eight points with the Thunder despite Minnesota being a good road team. Oklahoma City won Game 1 by 26 points and Game 2 by 15 points. The Timberwolves needed to win Game 4 to even this series at 2-2. Instead, the Thunder held the lead for most of the game and pulled out a 128-126 victory. Oklahoma City has covered the point spread in ten of their last thirteen games at home after winning their previous game on the road. The Thunder have a 7-1 record at home in the playoffs and they have covered the point spread in six of those eight games. Their average net point differential in those eight playoff games at home is +23.9 points per game. It was only Denver who twice were able to not get beat by 15 or more points when playing at Oklahoma City. The Thunder have coffered the point spread in thirty-three of their forty-seven games at home this season. They have covered the point spread in sixteen of their twenty-six home games when the oddsmakers installed them as the favorite of 6.5 to 12 points. They have covered the point spread in twenty-four of their thirty-two games at home against teams with a winning record.
Minnesota found their shooting touch in Games 3 and 4 at home by making 57.3% and 51.2% of their shots from the field. The Timberwolves shot 44% from 3-point land by converting on 18 of their 44 shots from the 3-point line. Yet after Anthony Edwards scored 30 points in Game 3, the Thunder blitzed him with defenders in Game 4 to force him to pass the ball to open teammates. Edwards only made 5 of his 13 shots from the field, and he missed six of his seven shots from 3-point range. Oklahoma City will probably continue this defensive approach and dare Edwards’ teammates to keep them competitive in this game. Minnesota only shot 34.9% on the road in Game 1 and 41.4% in Game 2. The Timberwolves committed 23 turners in Game 4 with the Thunder scoring 22 points off those turnovers. Oklahoma City entered the season forcing turnovers in 17.6% of their opponents' possessions. They averaged 24.6 points off turnovers in the first two series in the postseason. Minnesota began this series 13th of sixteen teams in the playoffs by turning the ball over in 15.8% of their possessions. They turned the ball over 17 times in Game 1 and 14 times in Game 2. If they cannot begin protecting the basketball better, the Thunder probably win another game by a large margin on their home court. The Timberwolves have only been installed as an underdog by 6.5 to 12 games by the oddsmakers in six games on the road this year. They covered the point spread just twice in those games. Minnesota has covered the point spread just three times in their last nine games in the Western Conference finals including only once in their four games on the road. Play Oklahoma City minus the points.
Good luck - Team Del Genio.
