TDG’s MLB MONDAY VEGAS *JACKPOT*
- Handicapper
- Team Del Genio
- League
- MLB
- Competition
- Chicago Cubs vs Miami Marlins
- Release Date
- 05/19/2025 06:37 PM
- Event Date
- 05/19/2025 06:40 PM
- Bet Type
- Moneyline
- Pick
-
Chicago Cubs -163
(BetOnline)
- Outcome
- Loss
- Analysis
- Our 20* MLB Monday Vegas Jackpot is with the Chicago Cubs with the money line versus Miami at 6:40 pm et.
The Chicago Cubs won for the fifth time in their last six games with a 6-2 victory against the Chicago White Sox yesterday. The Cubs have scored 26 runs in their last three games, and they have scored five or more runs in five of their last six games. Led by Pete Crow-Armstrong who is in the midst of a breakout season, they are averaging 5.9 runs per game on the road with a .261 batting average, a .330 on-base percentage, and a .478 slugging percentage. They should continue to pile up runs tonight against the Marlins’ Edward Cabrera. The right-hander has a 0-1 record with a 5.52 era and a 1.53 whip in six starts. At times, he can look great yet he struggles to maintain any consistency. He has a 5.31 era and a 1.43 whip in four starts at home this year. He had a 4-8 record with a 4.95 era and a 1.37 whip in twenty starts last year. His strikeout rate has dropped to a career-low 19.8% mark. He struck out 25.6% of the batters he faced last year, and his career-high was 27.2% two years ago. The Cubs have won twelve of their last eighteen games on the road when the oddsmakers installed them as a money line favorite priced at -125 or higher.
The Cubs have a .441 slugging percentage this season, and Miami has won just four of their last twenty-eight games against National League teams with a slugging percentage of .430 or higher. They have won just four of their last twelve games against opponents winning 54% to 62% of their games. They face the Cubs Ben Brown who has a 3-3 record with a 4.75 era and a 1.56 whip in nine appearances this year. In his three starts this month, he has a 2.76 era and a 1.04 whip. Last year, Brown had a 1-3 record yet posted a 3.58 era and a 1.08 whip in 55 1/3 innings in fifteen games which included eight starts. Opposing hitters are getting a hard-hit rate of only 28.7% of their batted balls against him. The MLB average hard-hit rate is 31.0% of batted balls in play, and Brown had a 36.2% hard-hit rate against him last year so this is a very positive development. Opposing hitters have a .381 batting average for the balls into play against him this year which is much higher than the MLB average of .288 and his .271 babip last year. The Marlins are averaging only 4.0 runs per game against right-handed pitchers with .238/.304/.381 hitting splits. Miami has only pulled off thirteen upset wins in their last thirty-seven games when the oddsmakers installed them as an underdog. Play the Chicago Cubs with the money line.
Good luck - Team Del Genio.
