NHL WINNIPEG-DALLAS ESPN SPECIAL
- Handicapper
- Hollywood Sports
- League
- NHL
- Competition
- Winnipeg Jets vs Dallas Stars
- Release Date
- 05/13/2025 07:47 PM
- Event Date
- 05/13/2025 08:12 PM
- Bet Type
- Moneyline
- Pick
-
Dallas Stars -150
(Consensus Line)
- Outcome
- Win
- Analysis
- At 8:10 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the money-line on the Dallas Stars (80) with the money-line versus the Winnipeg Jets (79) in Game Four of their Western Conference semifinal series. THE SITUATION: Dallas (56-30-6) had won three of their last four games after their 5-2 victory against the Jets on Sunday. Winnipeg (61-27-4) now trails in the series by a 2-1 margin.
REASONS TO TAKE THE STARS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: We were on Dallas for Game Three — and let’s ride them again with their money-line price still around my -150 price threshold (I don’t consider favorites priced higher than -150 since it requires a 60% win rate to break even — let’s just avoid the temptation and avoiding digging the hole chasing big favorites). Dallas was flat in Game Two after following up outlasting a very good Colorado team in the first round of the playoffs by then seizing home-ice advantage by taking Game One in Winnipeg. They dominated Game Three by generating 3.95 expected goals (xG) and holding the Jets to 1.75 xG. They should keep it going tonight. The Stars have won 19 of their last 31 games after winning on the home ice in their last game including 11 of those 16 games when they get to stay at home. Jake Oettinger rebounded from a subpar Game Two by stopping 24 of the 26 shots he faced on Sunday. In these playoffs, he ranks fourth of all goaltenders with a +3.8 GSAx mark. He enjoyed a 2.14 Goals-Against-Average and a .920 save percentage in 32 starts at home during the regular season. In his last four games at home in the postseason, Oettinger sports a .924 save percentage. Dallas has won 32 of their last 45 games at home — and they have won 10 of their last 14 home games with the Total set at 5.5. They have also won 12 of their last 18 home games against teams with a winning record. This Winnipeg team is inexperienced when making deeper runs in the playoffs — and they have lost 4 of their last 5 playoff games when trailing in the series. Connor Hellebuyck remains unreliable in the postseason. He gave up five goals from the 26 shots he faced on Sunday. Even worse, he posted a -1.76 GSAx mark in that game. At home in the regular season, he sported a 1.63 GAA and a .938 save percentage. But in his 29 games on the road in the regular season, those numbers declined to a 2.43 GAA and a .911 save percentage. Hellebuyck’s postseason issues are mental — he is too much in his head regarding how much he should deviate from his normal fundamentals given the increased physicality in the postseason especially around the net. It’s volatile. He is last in the NHL in the playoffs with a -9.96 GSAx mark — and after Sunday’s effort, he had dropped to last of the 26 goaltenders in the postseason with a -0.996 GSAx mark per 60 minutes. To translate that number, take the average goaltender in the league — and Hellebuyck is gin up one more goal than that guy in these playoffs. Winnipeg’s head coach Scott Arniel has seen his team lose 42 of their 68 road games as an underdog in his coaching career.
FINAL TAKE: The Stars have won 5 of their 7 Game Fours of a playoff series since Pete DeBoer took over as their head coach. 20* NHL Winnipeg-Dallas ESPN Special with the money-line on the Dallas Stars (79) with the money-line versus the Winnipeg Jets (80). Best of luck for us — Frank.
