TDG’s NHL DIVISION GAME OF THE YEAR
- Handicapper
- Team Del Genio
- League
- NHL
- Competition
- Winnipeg Jets vs Dallas Stars
- Release Date
- 05/13/2025 06:29 PM
- Event Date
- 05/13/2025 08:12 PM
- Bet Type
- Moneyline
- Pick
-
Dallas Stars -150
(Consensus Line)
- Outcome
- Win
- Analysis
- Our 25* NHL Central Division Game of the Year is on Dallas with the money line versus Winnipeg at 8:10 pm et.
The Winnipeg Jets followed up their 4-0 victory on Friday that evened this series at 1-1 with a 5-2 loss in Dallas in Game 3 on Sunday. Once again, goaltender Connor Hellebuyck struggled as he stopped only 21 of the 26 shots he faced. The likely Vezina Trophy winner already had the reputation of shrinking in the postseason, and those concerns have only become stronger in the playoffs this year. In the playoffs this year, he has a 3.51 goals-against average and a .848 save percentage. Hellebuyck did have a shutout in Game 2 by stopping all 21 shots he faced. His problems have been on the road where he has given up five or more goals in each of his four starts in the postseason. He has a .772 save percentage in those four road games in the playoffs. In his defense, he needs more help from his defensemen in clearing things out in front of him. Yet he is struggling with his mechanics and his confidence, especially when playing away from home. Some bettors may be tempted to back the Jets after their bad loss on Sunday, yet they have not been profitable in that role this season. In their fourteen games on the road following up a loss on the road by three or more goals, they have won just six times and lost -2.8 units for bettors in those spots. Revenge has not mattered either. In their eleven games when playing with revenge from a loss on the road by three or more goals against their opponent, they won five of those games yet lost their bettors -0.9 units.
Dallas got another strong goaltending effort from Jake Oettinger on Sunday as he stopped 24 of the 26 shots he faced. After a subpar opening game at home against Colorado last round when he gave up four goals, he has held three of his next four opponents to only two goals and posted a .924 save percentage in those four playoff games at home. The Stars want to take a 3-1 series lead at home tonight where they are averaging 3.5 goals per game and giving up only 2.5 goals per game. They have won eighteen of their last twenty-six games at home. They have won fourteen of their last twenty-one games at home when the oddsmakers installed the over/under at 5.5. The Jets have a +0.8 net goal differential this year, yet Dallas has won eight of their twelve home games this year against opponents with a +0.5 or higher net goal differential. Play Dallas with the money line.
Good luck - Team Del Genio.
