TDG’s NBA DIVISION FAVORITE OF THE YEAR (1H)
- Handicapper
- Team Del Genio
- League
- NBA
- Competition
- Indiana Pacers vs Cleveland Cavaliers
- Release Date
- 05/13/2025 05:50 PM
- Event Date
- 05/13/2025 07:07 PM
- Bet Type
- 1st Half Point Spread
- Pick
-
Cleveland Cavaliers -6 (-108)
(DraftKings)
- Outcome
- Loss
- Analysis
- Our 25* NBA Central Division Favorite of the Year is with Cleveland minus the points in the 1st Half versus Indiana at 7:05 pm et.
The Indiana Pacers took a commanding 3-1 lead in this best-of-seven series with a 129-109 upset victory at home against the Cavaliers on Sunday. Needing only one more victory in this series with two games potentially at home and with Donovan Mitchell not 100% with an ankle injury, it is human nature for the Pacers’ players to let up just a little bit, especially early in Game 5. Indiana tends to be better in the second half anyway. They have a +2.5 net point differential with +2.0 of those points coming in the 2nd Half. On the road, they have a -0.1 net point differential after going into halftime with a -1.8 average deficit. The Pacers have covered the 1st Half point spread just once in their last five games following an upset loss. They have covered the point spread in the 1st Half in six of their last sixteen games after beating a division opponent, and they have covered the 1st Half point spread in eleven of their last thirty-two games after winning at home in their previous game. Indiana has covered the 1st Half point spread in ten of their last thirty-nine games on the road when the oddsmakers installed the over/under at 230 or higher. They have covered the 1st Half point spread only twice in their last seven games on the road against opponents who are winning 70% or more of their games.
Cleveland will come out strong with their season on the line tonight. Mitchell only played 20 minutes and scored 12 points before sitting out the rest of the game to rest his sore ankle. He is listed as questionable yet is expected to try to play tonight given the high stakes. He may be used as a decoy tonight with his teammates needing to take on the load to keep their season alive. The Cavaliers should play well, especially in the 1st Half where they have covered the 1st Half point spread in five of their last seven games after an upset loss. They have covered the point spread in the 1st Half in eight of their last eleven games when playing with revenge from a loss on the road. Cleveland is used to dominant 1st Halves. They have a +6.7 net point differential in the 1st Half this year which represents two-thirds of their +10.0 net point differential for the season. At home, they have a +9.0 net point differential in the 1st Half. In the playoffs this year, they have a +8.6 net point differential in the 1st Half, and they have covered the 1st Half point differential in six of their eight playoff games this year. They have covered the point spread in the 1st Half in thirty of their forty-five games at home, and they have covered the 1st Half point spread in seventeen of their last twenty-one games at home against winning teams. The Cavaliers have covered the 1st Half point spread in thirteen of their seventeen games at home when the oddsmakers installed them as a full-game favorite from 3.5 to 9.5 points. The 1st Half play did not work out last night with Minnesota who went into halftime trailing before playing a great in the 2nd Half to win that game against Golden State. Yet those results did go against the grain regarding their 1st Half strength and the Warriors’ strength in the third quarter. Yet remember what happened in the Oklahoma City/Denver game on Sunday. The Thunder started fast by holding the Nuggets to just eight points in the first quarter, and they went into halftime with a 42-36 lead. Yet Denver stuck around and was stubborn in stopping Oklahoma City from pulling away for an easy victory. That set the stage for some questionable officiating and then a lucky late 3-pointer from Aaron Gordon and suddenly the Nuggets cover the point spread by a basket in a losing effort. Let’s avoid that sweat. Play Cleveland minus the points in the 1st Half.
Good luck - Team Del Genio.
