Sean's 10* MLB DIV. TOTAL OF MONTH! 24-15?
- Handicapper
- Sean Murphy
- League
- MLB
- Competition
- Tampa Bay Rays vs Toronto Blue Jays
- Release Date
- 05/13/2025 10:13 AM
- Event Date
- 05/13/2025 07:07 PM
- Bet Type
- Over / Under
- Pick
-
Tampa Bay Rays vs Toronto Blue Jays Under 8 (-115)
(BetOnline)
- Outcome
- Loss
- Analysis
- A.L. East Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Tampa Bay and Toronto at 7:05 pm ET on Tuesday.
Despite Toronto’s recent offensive surge — ranking third in the majors in wOBA over the past week — this sets up as a potential low-scoring affair as the Blue Jays return home following a west coast swing. Transitions like that often lead to a short-term dip in offensive production, particularly with an indoor game looming. With rain in the forecast, the roof at Rogers Centre is likely to be closed, limiting the ball’s carry and favoring pitchers.
Shane Baz gets the nod for Tampa Bay and is in need of a bounce-back after two poor starts. Fortunately for him, he’s had success against this Blue Jays lineup in limited exposure, allowing just seven hits (only one for extra bases) in 37 at-bats, good for a .189 batting average and .447 OPS against. The Rays bullpen should provide solid support as well, ranking seventh in xFIP this season.
On the other side, Toronto sends Jose Berríos to the mound. While he issued five walks in his last outing, he still completed six innings efficiently and has been consistently solid, giving up only four earned runs across his last 18 innings pitched. The Blue Jays bullpen continues to be one of the league’s most effective units, sitting third in xFIP.
With Tampa Bay’s offense struggling (ranking 26th in wOBA over the past week) and both bullpens in strong form, this sets up as a game where runs should be hard to come by.
Take the under. Projected score: Blue Jays 4, Rays 2.
