Nelly’s Tuesday NBA Game 5 Winner 40-27 RUN
- Handicapper
- Nelly's Sports
- League
- NBA
- Competition
- Denver Nuggets vs Oklahoma City Thunder
- Release Date
- 05/13/2025 08:38 AM
- Event Date
- 05/13/2025 09:45 PM
- Bet Type
- Point Spread
- Pick
-
Denver Nuggets +10.5 (-110)
(BetMGM)
- Outcome
- Win
- Analysis
- Denver has impressed in this series, even with Sunday’s home loss that has evened the series at 2-2 heading back to Oklahoma City. The Thunder were 35-6 at home in the regular season and are 3-1 so far in the playoffs at home but Denver has provided two of those seven home losses. Denver is 5-2 ATS in this series for the season and while Game 2 was a blowout, three of the four games have been very competitive. Denver has been an underdog of 10 or more points only 10 times the past three seasons combined, going 7-3 ATS and playoff teams laying 10 or more points are just 15-17 ATS with eight S/U losses the past three postseasons. If you take out the first round of the playoffs, NBA playoff favorites of 10 or more are just 36-48-2 ATS since 1991, including 9-19 ATS since 2017. #1 seeds in Game 5 of the conference semifinals have also fared poorly, going 11-19-1 ATS since 2003, and this is set to be one of the largest spreads for a team in this situation, with home favorites of 10 or more just 4-5-1 ATS since 1996 in Game 5 of this round. Denver’s defense has played better than its season returns so far in this series including holding the Thunder to below 36 percent shooting in Game 4. The Nuggets have had success rebounding and getting to the free throw line in this series and just a slight uptick in shooting results in Game 4 would have sent the Nuggets back to Oklahoma City up 3-1. The great depth for Oklahoma City isn’t as valuable in a playoff series and the nerves are showing for a Thunder team that hasn’t been as accomplished as the Nuggets in the postseason.
Thank you for playing with Nelly’s and Best of Luck.
