OSKEIM'S MLB FORTUNE 500 PLAY (105-72 RUN!)
- Handicapper
- Oskeim Sports
- League
- MLB
- Competition
- Washington Nationals vs Atlanta Braves
- Release Date
- 05/13/2025 08:32 AM
- Event Date
- 05/13/2025 07:15 PM
- Bet Type
- Run Line
- Pick
-
Atlanta Braves -1.5 (-115)
(DraftKings)
- Outcome
- Win
- Analysis
- The fact that Atlanta is a substantial favorite is good news for the home squad as MLB favorites of -201 or greater in games with totals of eight or more runs are 2570-975 SU (72.5%; +2.3% ROI) and 1902-1436 RL (57%; +2.9% ROI) since 2007, including 1438-501 SU (74.2%; +3.8% ROI) and 1136-804 RL (58.6%; +2.9% ROI) since 2018, winning by an average margin of +2.3 runs per game. Since 2003, large MLB home favorites that have the same or better record than their opponent over the last ten games are 2472-992 SU (71.4%; +1.2% ROI) and 1605-1341 RL (+1.7% ROI) from Game 40 out, including 901-332 SU (73.1%; +2.4% ROI) and 687-545 RL (55.8%; +1.1% ROI) since 2019, winning by an average of +2.0 runs per game. The Braves are 123-49 SU (71.5%) since 2010, as favorites of greater than -210, including 100-38 SU (72.5%) and 76-62 RL (55.1%), winning by an average of +2.2 runs per game. The Braves are 99-40 SU (71.2%; +9.4% ROI) and 69-69 RL (+2.8% ROI) since June 1, 2019, as home favorites of greater than -130 before Game 90 versus opponents with a worse win percentage, winning by an average of +1.9 runs per game.
Finally, Washington is currently riding a six-game losing streak, including losing the opening game in this series, which is relevant in that .490 or worse underdogs of +142 or greater coming off two or more consecutive losses are 1269-2567 SU (33.1%; -8.3% ROI) and 1689-15341 RL (-2.9% ROI), losing by an average of -1.5 runs per game. Take Atlanta and invest with confidence.
