OSKEIM'S #1 MLB VEGAS INSIDER ($18K RUN!)
- Handicapper
- Oskeim Sports
- League
- MLB
- Competition
- Miami Marlins vs Chicago Cubs
- Release Date
- 05/13/2025 08:25 AM
- Event Date
- 05/13/2025 07:40 PM
- Bet Type
- Run Line
- Pick
-
Chicago Cubs -1.5 (-115)
(BetMGM)
- Outcome
- Loss
- Analysis
- The fact that Chicago has been installed as a large favorite is good news for the home squad as MLB favorites of -201 or greater in games with totals of eight or more runs are 2570-975 SU (72.5%; +2.3% ROI) and 1902-1436 RL (57%; +2.9% ROI) since 2007, including 1438-501 SU (74.2%; +3.8% ROI) and 1136-804 RL (58.6%; +2.9% ROI) since 2018, winning by an average margin of +2.3 runs per game. Since 2003, large MLB home favorites that have the same or better record than their opponent over the last ten games are 2472-992 SU (71.4%; +1.2% ROI) and 1605-1341 RL (+1.7% ROI) from Game 40 out, including 901-332 SU (73.1%; +2.4% ROI) and 687-545 RL (55.8%; +1.1% ROI) since 2019, winning by an average of +2.0 runs per game. Since 2003, .490 or worse underdogs of +142 or greater coming off two or more consecutive losses are 1269-2567 SU (33.1%; -8.3% ROI) and 1689-15341 RL (-2.9% ROI), losing by an average of -1.5 runs per game. The Marlins are 402-604 SU (40%; -7.5% ROI) and 533-468 RL (-4.9% ROI) since 2010, on the road versus National League opponents, including 138-228 SU (37.7%; -9.5% ROI) and 187-178 RL (-7.4% ROI) since 2019.
Since 2006, MLB road underdogs of +130 or greater are 2854-5086 SU (36%; -4.3% ROI) and 4054-3471 RL (-3.0% ROI) versus .551 or greater opponents, including 844-1675 SU (33.5%; -8.7% ROI) and 1256-1259 RL (-7.2% ROI) since 2019, losing by an average of -1.4 runs per game. Finally, since 2000, MLB road underdogs of +175 or greater are 881-2149 SU (29.1%; -10.5% ROI) and 1225-1422 RL (-6.5% ROI) versus .551 or greater opponents, including 304-840 SU (26.6%; -16.6% ROI) and 496-648 RL (43.4%; -10.8% ROI) since 2019, losing by an average of -2.0 runs per game. Take Chicago and invest with confidence.
