TDG’s MLB WEDNESDAY VEGAS *JACKPOT*
- Handicapper
- Team Del Genio
- League
- MLB
- Competition
- San Diego Padres vs New York Yankees
- Release Date
- 05/07/2025 07:00 PM
- Event Date
- 05/07/2025 07:05 PM
- Bet Type
- Moneyline
- Pick
-
New York Yankees -172
(BetOnline)
- Outcome
- Win
- Analysis
- Our 20* MLB Wednesday Vegas Jackpot is with the New York Yankees with the money line versus San Diego at 7:05 pm et.
The New York Yankees ended a three-game losing streak with a 12-3 victory against the Padres in the second game of this interleague series. The Yankees have won nineteen of their thirty games this year when the oddsmakers installed them as a money line favorite of -110 or higher. They have won eleven of their fifteen games this year when the oddsmakers installed them as a money line favorite at -150 or higher. In their nineteen games at home this year when the oddsmakers installed them as a money line favorite at -110 or higher, they have won twelve of these games. The Bronx Bombers are crushing National League pitching this year. They are averaging 7.4 runs per game in those games with a .271 batting average, a .356 on-base percentage, and a .553 slugging percentage. Aaron Judge and company should continue to put up runs against the Padres’ Dylan Cease who is struggling out of the gate this season. He has a 1-2 record with a 5.61 era and a 1.60 whip in seven starts. He last pitched in Pittsburgh when he gave up two earned runs in four earned runs on Friday. That start was the sixth time in his seven starts that he did not complete six full innings. The right-hander’s strikeouts are down this year. The 25.3% strikeout rate is the lowest since 2020. His walk-rate is up to 9.7% of the batters he has faced after walking 8.5% of opposing hitters last year. The hard-hit rate of the batted balls against him is 36.4% this year which is the highest of his career. In his three starts away from Petco Park, he has a 9.00 era and a 1.92 whip.
San Diego has won just twice in their seven games on the road when playing an opponent that is winning 54% to 62% of their games. This is just the fourth time this season when the oddsmakers installed them as a money line underdog priced at +150 or higher. They have pulled off the upset only once in those previous four games. The Padres go against one of the hottest starting pitchers in MLB. Max Fried has a 6-0 record with a 1.01 era and a 0.94 whip in seven starts. The left-hander is thriving in limiting hard contact. Hitters are only producing hard-hit balls in only 21.3% of the batted balls in play which is a career-low for Fried. Fried’s home run of 0.40 per nine innings is also a career-best in his nine seasons. San Diego has not been as good when hitting against left-handed pitchers. They are averaging 4.0 runs per game with a .258 batting average and a .385 slugging percentage this year. Against left-handed pitchers, the Padres are averaging 3.7 runs per game with a .250 batting average and a .369 slugging percentage. Play the New York Yankees with the money line.
Good luck - Team Del Genio.
