25* UEFA CHAMPIONS LEAGUE MATCH OF THE YEAR!
- Handicapper
- Hollywood Sports
- League
- SOCCER
- Competition
- Arsenal vs Paris St Germain
- Release Date
- 05/07/2025 04:22 AM
- Event Date
- 05/07/2025 03:00 PM
- Bet Type
- Goal Line
- Pick
-
Paris St Germain -0.25 (-122)
(BetOnline)
- Outcome
- Win
- Analysis
- At 3:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Paris Saint-Germain (224214) minus the goal-line versus Arsenal (224213) in the second leg of their UEFA Champions League semifinal match. THE SITUATION: Paris Saint-Germain won the first-leg match between these teams with a 1-0 victory on the road at the Emirates Stadium last Tuesday. Arsenal must win this match by two goals to reach the UEFA Champions League Finals against Inter Milan.
REASONS TO TAKE PARIS SAINT-GERMAIN MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: Just to be crystal clear, PSG would be more than happy with a draw in this second-leg since that ensures they advance by the aggregate score — and we would not cover this goal-line bet. And bettors should know that the books resolve side and totals bets after regulation time concludes — so if this match goes to the 30-minute extra-time and Les Parisiens score the winning goal, it is too late for us. But I think PSG wins this match in regulation. Remember, Arsenal has to play aggressively to tie the score — and I suspect that sense of urgency will open up scoring chances for PSG. The Gunners are not in great form right now after losing over the weekend in the English Premier League by a 2-1 score at home against Bournemouth. Manager Mikel Arteta played his first-team starters so Arsenal had no excuses for losing that match. They have only won once in their last five matches in the EPL. Arteta is doing a fantastic job — but he is not close to having his best starting XI available to him. Gabriel Magalhaes is one of the best center-back defenders in the world but he is out the season with a hamstring injury. Arteta is also lacking a genuine striker at forward with both Gabriel Jesus and Kai Havertz out with injuries. Additionally, the wily veteran midfielder Jorghino with tons of big-time experience previously for Chelsea and the Italian National Team is out with a lung injury. The Gunners were outmatched out of the gates in the first-leg last week with PSG deploying a somewhat surprising press to begin that game. Manager Luis Enrique’s tactics worked since Ousmane Dembele scored in the fourth minute of the match. Arsenal failed to level the score despite playing in front of their home fans. Forward Bukayo Saka looked out of sorts on the pitch and does not look to be back in form after missing time earlier this year due to an injury. Even if Arsenal manages to tie this match, they have not handled leads well all season. They have dropped 21 potential winnings points when holding a lead in EPL matches this season — and the ten times in the top flight when they blew a lead and did not pull out the victory is a club record. PSG comes off a loss over the week in Ligue One on the road against Strasbourg — but Enrigue rested his best players to prepare for this match. Some bettors might be scared off Les Bleus' recent form as they are just W2-D1-L3 in their last six matches — but they already clinched the Ligue One title with six matches left in the campaign. It has been a remarkable campaign for PSG who needed to win their final three matches in the Group Stage of the Champions League to claim the 15th seed. But Les Parisiens beat the EPL champion this season, Liverpool, in the Round of 16 before taking care of Aston Villa in the quarterfinals. PSG also beat Manchester City in the Group Stage of the Champions League — so they are well-tested against the squads from England. Adding Khuicha Kuaratskhelia in the January transfer from Napoli was a shot in the arm for the scoring attack. But the biggest development this season has been the emergence of striker Ousmane Dembele who has shined in the role of replacing Kylian Mbappe. His improved finishing skills make him one of the best players in the world — and he is on the shortlist to win the Ballon d’Or awarded to the player who enjoyed the best season in all of soccer. The roster is talented and balanced — and keeper Gianluigi Donnarumma and right-back Achraf Hakimi may very well be the best players in the world at their position. Overall, the unity and cohesion of this team are better than the ones they had when Mbappe was the clear superstar and Talisman. The squad also has depth — and this will be a clear advantage against this injured Arsenal group. Finally, finding success at the Parc des Princes is very tough. PSG has scored 14 combined goals in their last three victories at home in the Champions League — and they have a W13-D2-L1 mark at home in Ligue One with 42 goals and just 15 conceded goals. Their expected goals (xG) in those matches rise to 52.16. Les Parisiens have advanced in 18 of their 19 Knockout Stage matches in the Champions League when playing at home in the second-leg after winning on the road in the first-leg.
FINAL TAKE: Arsenal has never advanced to the Knockout Stage of the Champions League after losing the first-leg at home. They did win at Real Madrid in the second-leg of the quarterfinals match with them — but they went in with a dominating 3-0 leg after the first match and Los Blancos are in disarray right now with their manager leaving at the end of the season. The Gunners have not reached a championship match in 19 seasons — while PSG most recently reached the UCL finals when they lost to Bayern Munich in 2020. 25* UEFA Champions League Match of the Year is with Paris Saint-Germain (224214) minus the goal-line versus Arsenal (224213). Best of luck for us — Frank.
