Nelly's Sports - Milwaukee Brewers vs St. Louis Cardinals

Nelly’s Sunday Division Delivery 11-3 MLB RUN

Handicapper

Nelly's Sports

League

MLB

Competition

Milwaukee Brewers vs St. Louis Cardinals

Release Date

04/27/2025 08:51 AM

Event Date

04/27/2025 02:15 PM

Bet Type

Moneyline

Pick

Milwaukee Brewers -106 (BetOnline)

Outcome

Win

Analysis

Milwaukee has now lost four straight games with a walk-off defeat in St. Louis on Saturday. Milwaukee battled back to tie that game after falling behind 5-0 and while the Brewers have a disappointing road record this season it has been a difficult road path so far that has included road series in New York, Arizona, and San Francisco already. After back-to-back one-run losses in this series Milwaukee has faced the top two late-inning options for the Cardinals in both games as Ryan Helsley and Phil Maton will likely be unavailable Sunday. Erick Fedde is looking to revitalize his career after going to the KBO in 2023 before finding some success last season with the White Sox then the Cardinals. Fedde has a higher BB/9 than K/9 so far this season in five starts and there is a 5.07 FIP lurking behind his 3.33 ERA. Fedde has a .195 BABIP so far this season for extreme fortune yet the Cardinals are 0-4 in his April starts. Jose Quintana has also been an overachiever for the Brewers, but the veteran lefthander has a much more proven track record of MLB success in his career. Quintana also has a low walk rate and Milwaukee is 3-0 in his starts this season. In his career Quintana has a 2.89 ERA in 12 starts at Busch Stadium as well. The Cardinals have only two wins vs. left-handed starters this season with the lineup batting .176 and scoring 1.9 runs per nine vs. lefties in the past five games. In contrast, despite losing four of the past five games, Milwaukee is batting .301 with 5.7 runs per nine vs. right-handers in that span. Both teams have had disappointing bullpen results for the season, but Milwaukee has a bullpen ERA that is two runs lower than the bullpen ERA for St. Louis over the past two games and Maton and Helsley can likely be removed from the equation for today’s game. Milwaukee outscored St. Louis 66-44 in last season’s series and after two one-run misses with near even hits and scoring opportunities, Milwaukee should have the edge on Sunday given the pitching matchup and bullpen availability. Thank you for playing with Nelly’s and Best of Luck.