TDG’s MLB NATIONAL LEAGUE GAME OF THE MONTH
- Handicapper
- Team Del Genio
- League
- MLB
- Competition
- Philadelphia Phillies vs Chicago Cubs
- Release Date
- 04/27/2025 04:23 AM
- Event Date
- 04/27/2025 07:10 PM
- Bet Type
- Moneyline
- Pick
-
Chicago Cubs -105
(BetOnline)
- Outcome
- Loss
- Analysis
- Our 25* MLB National League Game of the Month is on the Chicago Cubs with the money line versus the Philadelphia Phillies at 7:10 pm et.
The Chicago Cubs had won three games in a row before their 10-4 loss at home against the Phillies on Saturday. Despite the loss, the Cubs have started strong and go into Sunday night with a 17-10 record. Chicago’s offense has been a big catalyst for their great start. They have scored seven or more runs in twelve of their games, and they have scored ten or more runs in seven of their games. The Cubs have won eight of their last nine games after a loss this season. At home, they have won nine of their last twelve games. They had won six of their eight games at home when the oddsmakers installed them as a money line favorite up to a -150 price. They have won five of their six games at home this year when the oddsmakers installed them as a money line favorite priced up to -125 or as an underdog of up to +125. Jameson Taillon is their starting pitcher tonight. He has a 1-1 record with a 4.73 era and a 1.20 whip in five starts. The right-hander got hit hard in his opening start of the season at Arizona in March when he gave up six runs in 4 1/3 innings. In his four starts since, he has posted a 3.23 era and a 1.03 whip. What is perhaps most encouraging is that opposing hitters are only producing a hard-hit rate of the batted balls in play against him in 27.2% of their batted balls which is a career-low for Taillon. He had a 12-8 record last season with the Cubs with a 3.27 era and a 1.13 whip, and his recent four starts are right in line with those numbers.
Philadelphia had lost five games in a row before their victory on Saturday. The Phillies are only 13-13 this season, and they have won just twice in their eight games after a win this year. They have a 9-4 record at home this season, yet on the road they have won only four of their thirteen games. They are averaging just 3.8 runs per game on the road with a .230 batting average, a .318 on-base percentage, and a .338 slugging percentage. Aaron Nola gets his sixth start of the season in what has been his worst opening month of his career given his 0-5 record with a 6.43 era and a 1.61 whip. One of the problems he is experiencing is that his fastball is down a mile or two from his miles-per-hour average last year. His command is off as well. He is walking 8.7% of the batters he has faced and averaging 3.54 bases-on-balls per nine innings which are both the second-worst marks in his eleven-year career. The Cubs are raking against right-handed pitchers. They are averaging 5.8 runs per game against right-handed pitchers, and they have a .265/.340/.462 hitting splits against right-handed pitchers. Chicago has won fifteen of their last twenty-three games against opponents using a right-handed starting pitcher. The Phillies have only won two of their nine games this season when the oddsmakers installed them as a money line favorite priced up to -150. They have won twice in their ten games this year when the oddsmakers installed them as a money line favorite up to a -125 price or as a money line underdog priced up to +125. Play the Chicago Cubs with the money line.
Good luck - Team Del Genio.
