MLB SUPER UNDER-VALUED FAVORITE
- Handicapper
- Hollywood Sports
- League
- MLB
- Competition
- Milwaukee Brewers vs San Francisco Giants
- Release Date
- 04/23/2025 08:42 PM
- Event Date
- 04/23/2025 09:45 PM
- Bet Type
- Moneyline
- Pick
-
San Francisco Giants -138
(BetOnline)
- Outcome
- Win
- Analysis
- At 9:45 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the money-line on the San Francisco Giants (960) versus the Milwaukee Brewers (959) listing both starting pitchers Logan Webb and Freddy Peralta. THE SITUATION: San Francisco (15-9) has lost two of their last three games after their 5-4 loss in Los Angeles against the Angels on Tuesday. Milwaukee (13-11) has won two of their last three games after their 14-1 victory against the Athletics last night.
REASONS TO TAKE THE GIANTS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: San Francisco has won 6 of their last 8 games after a loss this season. They have also won 4 of their last 5 home games after allowing ten or more runs going back to last season. After playing their last ten games on the road, they return home where they are hitting .264 with a .325 On-Base Percentage and a .736 OPS. The Giants have won 10 of their last 13 games when priced as a money-line favorite up to -150 including five of those seven games played at home. They have also won 5 of their last 7 games against teams winning 54-62% of their games. Webb gets the ball tonight after a great outing (albeit in a losing effort) when he gave up only one earned run (two runs overall) in six innings of work against the Angels. He struck out 12 batters and did not issue a walk in that effort. After failing to register double-digit strikeouts in any start last year, he has already done that twice this season. He has 38 punchouts in his 30 innings of work. Overall, he has a 2.40 ERA and a 1.03 WHIP in five starts. The deeper sabermetrics are bullish as both his SIERA and xFIP project an ERA of 2.28 and 1.92 moving forward. This is just his second start at home this year after pitching seven scoreless innings in his previous start at home at Oracle Park. In his 15 starts at home last season, he enjoyed a 2.83 ERA along with a 1.03 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .234 as opposed to his 4.11 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, and .280 opponent’s batting average in 18 starts on the road. He faces a Brewers team that is hitting only .236 against right-handed pitchers along with a .309 on-base percentage and an OPS of .704. Milwaukee has lost 6 of their last 8 road games against National League teams using a starting pitcher with an ERA no higher than .320. The Brewers send out Peralta who has a 2-1 record with a 1.91 ERA and a 1.02 WHIP in five starts. The right-hander is pitching better so far this season after making some mechanical adjustments to his delivery in the offseason. But the deeper sabermetrics still call for regression with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.26 and 3.50 moving forward. And while he sports a 0.69 ERA along with a 0.77 WHIP in two starts at home, those numbers rise to a 2.93 ERA along with a 1.24 WHIP in his three starts on the road this season. Milwaukee has lost 7 of their 9 games this season when priced as an underdog up to +150 — and six of those seven losses were on the road.
FINAL TAKE: The Giants have a .330 on-base percentage and a .765 OPS against right-handed pitchers this season — and they have won 13 of their 15 games against teams using a right-handed starting pitcher this season including five of those six games played at home. 10* MLB Super Under-Valued Favorite with the money-line on the money-line on the San Francisco Giants (960) versus the Milwaukee Brewers (959) listing both starting pitchers Logan Webb and Freddy Peralta. Best of luck for us — Frank.
