Hollywood Sports - Michigan vs Auburn

25* CBB SWEET 16 UNDERDOG OF THE YEAR!

Handicapper
Hollywood Sports
League
NCAAB
Competition
Michigan vs Auburn
Release Date
03/28/2025 06:15 PM
Event Date
03/28/2025 10:00 PM
Bet Type
Point Spread
Pick
Michigan +8.5 (-102) (DraftKings)
Outcome
Loss
Analysis
At 9:39 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Michigan Wolverines (633) plus the points versus the Auburn Tigers (634) in the Sweet 16 of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Michigan (27-9) has won five games in a row after their 91-79 upset victory as a 3-point underdog in the Round of 32 of the NCAA Tournament on Saturday. Auburn (30-5) has won three of their last four games after their 82-70 victory against Clemson as a 9-point favorite in their second-round game in the Big Dance on Saturday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the State Farm Arena in Atlanta, Georgia. REASONS TO TAKE THE WOLVERINES PLUS THE POINTS: Auburn is beginning to show some cracks in their armor which may make it very hard to easily beat (and cover point spreads) good opponents like Michigan — especially given the Wolverines’ size down low. The Tigers entered the Big Dance with three losses in their last four games. While they rank 11th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency, they began the NCAA Tournament ranking just 54th in that category in March. Some of the issues have been with the return of Denver Jones from injury who does not appear to be close to 100% with his lateral movement not as sharp. In their last five games before this tournament, their opponents scored 17 Points-Per-Game, which was the second-most in the country. Let’s dig deeper into this defense that surrenders +6.4 more adjusted points per 100 possessions when playing on the road — and that is the 330th-worst dropoff in the nation. They rank 61st in the nation on the road with their opponents making 48.9% of their shots inside the arc. They also rank 315th on the road in putting their opponents on the free throw line. And they rank 186th in the nation on the road by allowing their opponents to pull down 30.8% of their missed shots. This is the real vulnerability of this Tigers team. In their five losses this season, they have surrendered at least ten offensive rebounds — including the whopping 24 offensive rebounds secured by Texas A&M in their final game in the regular season. The Wolverines outrebound their opponents by +5.0 Rebounds-Per-Game — and Auburn has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their 16 games against teams who outrebound their opponents by +4.0 or more RPG including three of those nine games played on the road. The Tigers have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in March. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after when playing with five or six days of rest. They got by Creighton last week by making 46.9% of their shots which was the best shooting effort in their last four games. But both Johni Broome and Dylan Caldwell struggled against the Bluejays’ Ryan Kalkbrenner who is a taller seven-footer. Broome only scored 8 points on 4 of 13 shooting while Caldwell scored just 6 points and pulled down four rebounds. Now here comes Michigan twin-towers with both Danny Wolf and Vladislav Goldin presenting matchup problems at 7’0 and 7’1 respectively. The Wolverines limit their opponents to taking just 22.9% of their shots at the rim which is in the lowest three percentile in the nation. Their opponents only make 59.0% of these shots at the rim which ranks in the lowest 20% as well. Michigan is playing outstanding defense after holding the Aggies to just 38.0% shooting. They have held five of their last seven opponents to not better than 38.7% shooting. On the road, they rank 10th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Wolf and Goldin combined for 37 points and 31 rebounds against a stout Texas A&M frontline. Those two will be challenged by the Tigers’ tough frontline — so it may come down to the play of guards. The Wolverines have won all seven of their games when point guard Trey Donaldson scores at least 16 points. Michigan ranks 15th in the nation by making 57.3% of their shots inside the arc and they rank 76th by pulling down 33.4% of their misses — so they can exploit the cracks in Auburn armor on defense. The glaring weakness for this Wolverines team is that they rank 324th by turning the ball over in 19.6% of their possessions. But they have lowered that turnover rate to 17.9% in their last ten games which ranks 255th over that span. And the Tigers only rank 232nd in the nation on the road by forcing turnovers in 15.8% of their opponent's possessions. Michigan is battle-tested after beating Maryland along with Wisconsin and Purdue for a second time in the Big Ten Conference Tournament. Their 13 wins by four points or less this season can be seen as a negative — but it prepared them for this moment. Auburn is outscoring their opponents by +14.4 PPG — but the Wolverines have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games on the road against teams who are outscoring their opponents by 8.0 or more PPG. They have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games as an underdog. Michigan has covered the point spread in all 7 of their tournament games played on a neutral court this season. FINAL TAKE: Auburn entered this tournament with an amazing 15-5 record against Quad I teams — but that mark makes it "championship or bust" for this squad with all the nerves that come with that. They may have peaked too early given the decline of their play on defense this month. This is a veteran squad — but do they have a true leader on the court? And emotional maturity can be an issue with this team — especially from Chad Baker-Mazara. This all creates a volatile mix for head coach Bruce Pearl who has seen his teams in the Big Dance fail to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games when a four-seed or better including five of those seven games since taking over Auburn. 25* CBB Sweet 16 Underdog of the Year with the Michigan Wolverines (633) plus the points versus the Auburn Tigers (634). Best of luck for us — Frank.

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