Nelly’s Sunday R32 Opportunity 35-22 RUN
- Handicapper
- Nelly's Sports
- League
- NCAAB
- Competition
- New Mexico vs Michigan State
- Release Date
- 03/23/2025 09:39 AM
- Event Date
- 03/23/2025 08:55 PM
- Bet Type
- Point Spread
- Pick
-
New Mexico +7.5 (-110)
(BetMGM)
- Outcome
- Loss
- Analysis
- While his dad didn’t make the Sweet 16, Richard Pitino can keep the family in the tournament as the Lobos are an upset threat against #2 seed Michigan State. The win over Marquette was thoroughly impressive as the Lobos got to the line effectively and used its size to score on high percentage shots while Marquette was forced to rely on 3-point shooting. While the Mountain West has often fared poorly in the NCAA Tournament, the Lobos were the top rated team in the conference and this team didn’t look out of place in going 2-0 vs. the Big Ten in non-conference play while also beating A-10 champion VCU. New Mexico is 20-4 since mid-December and other than a 14-point November loss at St. John’s, every loss for the Lobos has come by eight or fewer points. New Mexico plays extremely fast, has great size, and rates as a top 20 defense nationally for a rare combination that could make New Mexico an upset threat against the Spartans. Michigan State has enjoyed a great season, but this is a team that has had several close calls and routinely has stretches where the offense struggles to find rhythm. Michigan State has been a terrific second half team, but this is a 31 percent 3-point shooting team and the excellent 3-point defense for the Spartans won’t be an impactful factor as New Mexico takes 3-point shots infrequently. New Mexico will have a size advantage at a few positions and the significant rebounding edge the Spartans had on Friday vs. Bryant is unlikely to repeat. Michigan State’s 25-point win was just a 10-point edge with less than 10 minutes remaining vs. Bryant as the final score was a bit misleading and while the Spartans have only six losses this season, four have come in the past 14 games. Free throw shooting is a concern for New Mexico as one of the worst teams at the line in the tournament but this #10 seeds have fared well in this round ATS historically vs. #2 seeds, with Arkansas adding another win yesterday in the upset over St. John’s. Tom Izzo has a great tournament history that draws market support but in his past nine tournament runs he has been eliminated in this round or earlier six times.
Thank you for playing with Nelly’s and Best of Luck.
