PGA ARNOLD PALMER INVITATIONAL LONG SHOT BET
- Handicapper
- Hollywood Sports
- League
- GOLF
- Competition
- PGA Arnold Palmer Invitational
- Release Date
- 03/06/2025 04:29 AM
- Event Date
- 03/06/2025 12:55 PM
- Bet Type
- Point Spread
- Pick
-
Shane Lowry versus Sam Burns in Round One head-to-head props +0.5 (-135)
(DraftKings)
- Outcome
- Win
- Analysis
- THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour continues its Florida swing with the Arnold Palmer Invitational at Arnold Palmer’s Bay Hill Club and Lodge in Orlando, Florida. This event is a Par 72 tournament on a course consisting of 7466 yards originally designed by Dick Wilson before several redesigns overseen by Palmer. Bay Hill is one of the most difficult stops on the tour — it has annually ranked as one of the top-ten hardest courses on the PGA Tour in the last five years, particularly for a Par 72 event. The thick rough grows out to 4 inches. Nine holes present water hazards. There are 84 sand bunkers. The fairways consist of overseeded ryegrass and they are often doglegs while averaging only 32 yards in width. The greens average 7500 square feet consisting of TifEagle Bermuda greens that measure up to 13.5 feet on the stimpmeter. The wind is often a challenge in Orlando at this time of the year — and the breeze will be 18 miles per hour and gusting up to 25 MPH on Day One and returning again on Sunday with projections of 15 MPH and gusting to 20 MPH. This is the fourth signature event in 2025 with 73 professionals vying for the more lucrative purse. The scoring average last year was 72.31 per round which made it the eighth straight season when this tournament saw the professionals average over par per round. The low-50 scores plus ties and any players within ten strokes will survive the cut.
LONG SHOT: Shane Lowry (+4500 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Lowry (7151) versus Sam Burns (7152) in Round One head-to-head props (and grab the +0.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). This prop goes off the board at 1:00 PM ET.
Our Long Shot Bet to win the PGA Arnold Palmer Invitational is on Shane Lowry who is listed at +4500 odds at DraftKings. We were on Lowry last week — and he settled for a tie for 11th place at the PGA Cognizant Classic. Lowry is in very nice form — and he loves playing in his home state of Florida so this price is too good to pass up. He has finished in the top 12 in ten of his last 12 events worldwide including an impressive third place in the DP World Tour Championship. He finished in second place at the PGA AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am last month. When playing in Florida, he has finished in the top ten in eight of his last ten starts — so he is starting with a likely high floor this week. He is second on the PGA Tour in 2025 in Proximity to the Hole. Lowry is one of the best ball-strikers in the world. Last year, he ranked 12th on the PGA Tour in Shots-Gained: Approach-The-Green and 17th in Total Driving. So far this year, he ranks 12th in Shots-Gained: Tee-To-Green and 23rd in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green. Seven of the last eight winners at this event finished the week by ranking in the top 17 in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green. Lowry had seven top-nine finishes on the PGA Tour last season including a pair of sixth-place results at the PGA Championship and the British Open. He had struggled at this tournament before last year when he finished in third place after either leading or co-leading in each of the first three days of the event. Twelve of the last 13 winners of this tournament had previously finished in the top 25 at this event. And, by the way, if the wind plays a factor this week, Lowry is the prototype golfer we want to back given his experience in these conditions including a British Open victory for the Irishman.
Lowry is linked with Sam Burns in Round One head-to-head props. Burns is another golfer who I tend to support — so I am not a zombie when making these weekly decisions. Burns thrives when putting on Bermuda greens, so I do not make this (comparative) decision lightly. I am comfortable fading him this week given his form with his accuracy and his past performances on this course. While he ranks 28th in Driving Distance so far this season, he plummets to 110th in Driving Accuracy — and this is the wrong course to miss the fairway given all the water and sand notwithstanding the narrow fairways and alas the wind on Thursday and Sunday. He also ranks 113th in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green this season — and seven of the last eight winners of this tournament finished in the top 16 for the week in that category. Sure enough, Burns’ tie for ninth place in 2022 was his lone top-25 finish at this tournament in his seven trips despite his affinity for the Bermuda greens. Take Lowry (7151) versus Burns (7152) in Round One head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.
Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%. For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.
