ARNOLD PALMER INVITATIONAL TOP OVERLAY BET
- Handicapper
- Hollywood Sports
- League
- GOLF
- Competition
- PGA Arnold Palmer Invitational
- Release Date
- 03/06/2025 03:21 AM
- Event Date
- 03/06/2025 09:50 AM
- Bet Type
- Point Spread
- Pick
-
Collin Morikawa versus Hideki Matsuyama in Round One head-to-head prop +0.5 (-125)
(DraftKings)
- Outcome
- Win
- Analysis
- THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour continues its Florida swing with the Arnold Palmer Invitational at Arnold Palmer’s Bay Hill Club and Lodge in Orlando, Florida. This event is a Par 72 tournament on a course consisting of 7466 yards originally designed by Dick Wilson before several redesigns overseen by Palmer. Bay Hill is one of the most difficult stops on the tour — it has annually ranked as one of the top-ten hardest courses on the PGA Tour in the last five years, particularly for a Par 72 event. The thick rough grows out to 4 inches. Nine holes present water hazards. There are 84 sand bunkers. The fairways consist of overseeded ryegrass and they are often doglegs while averaging only 32 yards in width. The greens average 7500 square feet consisting of TifEagle Bermuda greens that measure up to 13.5 feet on the stimpmeter. The wind is often a challenge in Orlando at this time of the year — and the breeze will be 18 miles per hour and gusting up to 25 MPH on Day One and returning again on Sunday with projections of 15 MPH and gusting to 20 MPH. This is the fourth signature event in 2025 with 73 professionals vying for the more lucrative purse. The scoring average last year was 72.31 per round which made it the eighth straight season when this tournament saw the professionals average over par per round. The low-50 scores plus ties and any players within ten strokes will survive the cut.
TOP OVERLAY BET: Collin Morikawa (+2000 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Morikawa (7124) versus Hideki Matsuyama (7123) in Round One head-to-head props (and grab the +0.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). This prop goes off the board at 9:55 AM ET.
Our Top Overlay Bet on the golfer who offers the most value relative to their odds is on Collin Morikawa who is listed at +2000 odds at DraftKings. Morikawa has been a familiar name for us so far this season. His results have been good but not spectacular with a second place at The Sentry followed up by a pair of ties for 17th place at Pebble Beach and then the Genesis Invitational. But Morikawa ranks second on the tour this season in Shots-Gained: Total — so it is hard to jump off the bandwagon when being off six times the return that Scottie Scheffler is at +320. His putting has been an Achilles’ heel in the past — but he ranks 27th in Shots-Gained: Putting so far this season and he has had success when putting on Bermuda greens. He ranks second on the PGA Tour this year in Shots-Gained: Tee-To-Green — and he is 16th in Bogey Avoidance which is an important metric for difficult courses. He also ranks 10th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green — and seven of the last eight winners of this tournament finished the week in the top 16 in that category. Morikawa also ranks fourth in the field this week in Shots-Gained: Ball Striking (Total Driving plus Greens-In-Regulation) on courses with high penalties for missing the fairway. Morikawa should be energized to lift a trophy this year after failing to win a tournament in 2024 — but he was ever so close with six top-five finishes on the PGA Tour. He finished second at the PGA Tour Championship (including the adjusted starting score) in Atlanta last August. Beginning with the Masters last season, he registered 13 straight top-25 finishes before losing touch with his irons in the summer. He usually is one of the best iron players in the game — and his play at the Tour Championship (and then at The Sentry) suggests he regained his touch. Last year, he ranked 42nd in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green and 11th in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green. If he returns to his 2022-23 form when he ranked 2nd in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green and 4th in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green, then he will win tournaments in 2025. He made a big improvement in his short game last year by ranking 10th in Shots-Gained: Around the Green after ranking 96th in that category the previous season. In four trips at this tournament, he peaked with a tie for ninth place in 2020. Twelve of the last 13 winners here had at least one top 25 result under their belt as a professional at this event.
Morikawa is linked with Hideki Matsuyama in Round One head-to-head props. Matsuyama is a frequent favorite of mine regarding these weekly investments on the PGA Tour — so I should not be accused of blind favoritism. Since winning The Sentry in early January, he is trending in the wrong direction. His tie for 13th place at the Genesis Invitational was his best finish since that early triumph. He is struggling with his Ball-Striking — especially off the tee which is not a good issue to be dealing with this week given all the hazards for not being long and straight. After ranking 33rd on the PGA Tour last year in Shots-Gained: Off-The-Tee, he has dropped to 114th in that category this season. Matsuyama has been short and wild with his driver this year — the worst of both worlds. He ranks 111th this year in Driving Distance and 166th in Driver Accuracy. That explains why he ranks 175th in Total Driving in 2025. In regards to Ball-Striking, he ranks 152nd this season. Matsuyama has made the cut at this tournament in nine of his ten visits — but he ranks 106th in Round One Scoring so far this season. Take Morikawa (7124) versus Matsuyama (7123) in Round One head-to-head props (and grab the +0.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). Best of luck for us — Frank.
Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%. For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.
