Hollywood Sports - PGA Arnold Palmer Invitational

PGA ARNOLD PALMER INVITATIONAL BEST BET

Handicapper

Hollywood Sports

League

GOLF

Competition

PGA Arnold Palmer Invitational

Release Date

03/06/2025 01:14 AM

Event Date

03/06/2025 09:40 AM

Bet Type

Point Spread

Pick

Ludvig Aberg versus Scottie Scheffler in Round One head-to-head props +0.5 (+112) (DraftKings)

Outcome

Loss

Analysis

THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour continues its Florida swing with the Arnold Palmer Invitational at Arnold Palmer’s Bay Hill Club and Lodge in Orlando, Florida. This event is a Par 72 tournament on a course consisting of 7466 yards originally designed by Dick Wilson before several redesigns overseen by Palmer. Bay Hill is one of the most difficult stops on the tour — it has annually ranked as one of the top-ten hardest courses on the PGA Tour in the last five years, particularly for a Par 72 event. The thick rough grows out to 4 inches. Nine holes present water hazards. There are 84 sand bunkers. The fairways consist of overseeded ryegrass and they are often doglegs while averaging only 32 yards in width. The greens average 7500 square feet consisting of TifEagle Bermuda greens that measure up to 13.5 feet on the stimpmeter. The wind is often a challenge in Orlando at this time of the year — and the breeze will be 18 miles per hour and gusting up to 25 MPH on Day One and returning again on Sunday with projections of 15 MPH and gusting to 20 MPH. This is the fourth signature event in 2025 with 73 professionals vying for the more lucrative purse. The scoring average last year was 72.31 per round which made it the eighth straight season when this tournament saw the professionals average over par per round. The low-50 scores plus ties and any players within ten strokes will survive the cut. BEST BET: Ludvig Aberg (+1600 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Aberg (7121) versus Scottie Scheffler (7122) in Round One head-to-head props (and grab +0.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). This prop goes off the board at 9:45 AM ET. Our Best Bet to win the PGA Arnold Palmer Invitational is on Ludvig Aberg who is listed at +1600 odds at DraftKings. We were on Aberg three weeks ago when he won the PGA Genesis Invitational at Torrey Pines. As I wrote for that report, Aberg is an uber-talented 25-year-old who is on the verge of being the next superstar on the PGA Tour. I mostly avoided him during his rookie season last year since I tend to avoid investing in golfers making their professional debut on the courses on the PGA Tour. But now that he is making his second run on many of these courses, he becomes very intriguing — especially at these odds. Even better for this week, Aberg is playing Bay Hill for the third time in his career as a professional — so he will be like a savvy veteran this time around relative to his inexperience on the other courses on the PGA Tour. Twelve of the last 13 winners here had at least one top 25 result under their belt as a professional at this event. Aberg posted three second-place finishes last year including at the Masters, the BMW Championship in the second leg of the FedEx playoffs, and at PGA AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. He began this season by finishing in fifth place at the stacked field at The Sentry which kicked off the 2025 season in Hawai’i. He battled a virus for his middle two starts before winning at Torrey Lines last month. Aberg is a great fit for this course because he is one of the biggest drivers on the tour so the 7466 yards the pros encounter this week play to his strength. His Strokes-Gained metrics and other analytic data need to be taken with a grain of salt since he played through illness in two of his four starts on the PGA Tour. He ranked fourth on the tour in Total Driving and tenth in Driving Distance: All Drives last season. He ranked seventh on the PGA Tour last year in Shots-Gained: Total. He was also 21st in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green. He proved he could handle difficult courses last year with a second-place finish at the Masters. He finished last season ranking 23rd in Bogey Avoidance. I suspect the days are dwindling when Aberg is not listed at short odds like Scottie Scheffler at +320 or Rory McIlroy at +750 are this week. Those are underlay values at those prices. On such a difficult course with a dynamite field, let’s invest in Aberg again at this decent price. Aberg is linked with Scottie Scheffler in Round One head-to-head props. I don’t love fading Scheffler — but this is the best time to do it since he is searching for his peak form. That sentiment is a statement of just how good he is when he is at his best since he comes off a tie for third place at the Genesis Invitational last month — and he also has a tie for 25th place at the WM Phoenix Open and a tie for ninth place at the PGA AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. He is putting better this year — so he may very well go on a tear sooner rather than later. But his hand injury that delayed the start of his season leaves him rusty with his ball-striking. After ranking second in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee last year, he has dropped to 50th in that metric so far this season. The issue is with his accuracy — after ranking 23rd in Driving Accuracy last year, he has fallen to 112th in that metric in 2025. With all the water and sand — and contending with the wind — while confronting narrow fairways and four-inch rough, finding the short stuff this week is critical. Scheffler is also struggling with his short game. After ranking 17th in Shots-Gained: Around the Green, he has fallen back to 74th in that category this season. He has won this tournament twice before including last year — but perhaps the pressure and responsibilities to defend his title this season while being in less than ideal form will work against him. Take Aberg (7121) versus Scheffler (7122) in Round One head-to-head props (and grab the +0.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). Best of luck for us — Frank. Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%. For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.