TDG’s NCAA-B CONFERENCE GAME OF THE YEAR
- Handicapper
- Team Del Genio
- League
- NCAAB
- Competition
- Austin Peay vs North Alabama
- Release Date
- 03/03/2025 05:01 PM
- Event Date
- 03/03/2025 07:00 PM
- Bet Type
- Point Spread
- Pick
-
North Alabama -11.5 (-110)
(BetMGM)
- Outcome
- Win
- Analysis
- Our 25* NCAA-B Atlantic Sun Game of the Year is North Alabama minus the points versus Austin Peay at 7 pm et.
Austin Peay advanced from their first-round game in the Atlantic Sun tournament last night with a 90-69 upset victory against North Florida in a game that was played on North Alabama’s home court at Flowers Hall in Florence. The Governors had their hottest shooting game of the season by making 54.9% of their shots. Yet they have not covered the point spread in four straight games on the road when following up an upset victory. Austin Peay has a 14-18 record yet they have pretty lucky to win both of their games decided by two points or less and won two of their three other games that were settled in overtime. They rank seventh in the conference in both offensive efficiency and defensive efficiency. They stay in Florence as the true road team tonight in the quarterfinals of the Atlantic Sun tournament against the Lions in front of their home fans. The Governors have a 6-13 record on the road with a -9.5 net point differential. They have covered the point spread in five of their last thirteen games on the road when the oddsmakers installed them as an underdog or pick ‘em. Austin Peay held North Florida to 45.6% shooting last night, yet their last five opponents have averaged 81.8 points per game on 50.7% shooting against them. They converted on 7 of their 18 shots from 3-point land last night. When they pull upsets, it comes from their 3-point shooting as they rank fourth in the conference by making 36.9% of their 3s. Yet North Alabama is second in the Atlantic Sun by holding their conference opponents to 31.0% shooting from 3-point land. The Lions have a +8.4 net point differential, and Austin Peay has not covered the point spread in their last six games against opponents with a +8.0 or better net point differential. The Governors lost both previous games against North Alabama this season, with the last game taking place on February 5th in a 74-64 loss at home. Austin Peay has covered the point spread once in their last five games on the road when avenging a previous loss to their opponent.
North Alabama closed out their regular season with eight victories in their last nine games after a 74-69 victory against Queens University-Charlotte on February 26th. The Lions are averaging 80.4 points per game on 50.9% shooting from the field. They rank second in the conference in both offensive and defensive efficiency. They should be able to cover the double-digit points we are laying since they are so efficient when they have the basketball. North Alabama leads the nation by turning the ball over in only 12.7% of their possessions. They lead the Atlantic Sun by rebounding 36.4% of their missed shots in conference play. The Governors allow their conference opponents to rebound 31.1% of their missed shots, ranking tenth in the conference. The Lions have covered the point spread in sixteen of their last twenty-one games when the oddsmakers installed them as the favorite, and they have covered the point spread in six of their last seven games when favored by ten or more points. Their home court advantage should play a role tonight as well. North Alabama has a 14-1 record at home with a +16.9 net point differential. They average 86.7 points per game on 48.7% shooting on their home court. They have covered the point spread in eleven of their last thirteen games at home, and they have covered the point spread in seven of their last eight games at home when the oddsmakers installed the over/under from 140 to 149.5. The Lions shoot 46.1% from the field this season, and the Governors have covered the point spread in two of their last nine games on the road against opponents who are making 45% or more of their shots. Austin Peay has an opponent’s field goal percentage of 46.3%, and North Alabama has covered the point spread in nine of their last eleven games against opponents with a defensive field goal percentage of 45% or higher. Play North Alabama minus the points.
Good luck - Team Del Genio.
