PGA PEBBLE BEACH PRO-AM TOP OVERLAY BET
- Handicapper
- Hollywood Sports
- League
- GOLF
- Competition
- PGA AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am
- Release Date
- 01/30/2025 02:09 AM
- Event Date
- 01/30/2025 11:40 AM
- Bet Type
- Point Spread
- Pick
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Ludvig Aberg versus Tommy Fleetwood in Round One head-to-head props +0 (-119)
(DraftKings)
- Outcome
- Loss
- Analysis
- THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour moves north from San Diego up the coast to the Monterey Peninsula for the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am at Pebble Beach, California. This event underwent some changes last year now that it is a signature event with a higher payday. The once field of 156 professionals along with amateurs has been reduced to 80 professionals with no weekend cut. The amateurs play on Thursday and Friday but no longer compete on Saturday. And while this tournament rotated amongst three courses for its first three days before cutting down to 60 pros on Sunday, the 18 holes at the Monterey Peninsula County Club Shore Course have been eliminated. The famed Pebble Beach course will be used for three of the four rounds. This track has a Par of 72 consisting of 6972 yards and will host the weekend rounds. The players will contend with 116 sand bunkers. The greens are the smallest on the PGA Tour as they average 3500 square feet. Pebble Beach was the site of the 2019 US Open as well as the 2018 US Amateur Open. Spyglass Hill Golf Course will be used for one of the two opening rounds. It is a Par 72 consisting of 7041 yards. On both courses, the rough has grown out another inch to three inches in some spots. The Pacific Ocean comes into play as a water hazard on both courses. The greens feature Poa Annua grass that will approach 12 feet on the stimpmeter. Lastly, while weather often plays a major role, light winds are expected this week.
TOP OVERLAY BET: Ludvig Aberg (+1800 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Aberg (7115) versus Tommy Fleetwood (7116) in Round One head-to-head props. This prop goes off the board at 11:48 AM ET.
Our Top Overlay Bet on the golfer who offers the most value relative to the odds is on Ludvig Aberg who is listed at +1800 odds at DraftKings. Aberg is an uber-talented 25-year-old who is on the verge of being the next superstar on the PGA Tour. I mostly avoided him during his rookie season last year since I tend to avoid investing in golfers making their professional debut on the courses on the PGA Tour. But now that he is making his second run on many of these courses, he becomes very intriguing — especially at these odds. Aberg posted three second-place finishes last year including at the Masters, the BMW Championship in the second leg of the FedEx playoffs, and at this tournament. He co-led this event after the first two rounds — and he gained almost three strokes versus the field with his putter. One of Aberg’s strengths is with his driver — and the short distance at this course neutralizes that edge of his. But Aberg is such a bright and promising talent because of his well-rounded skillset. He ranked seventh on the PGA Tour last year in Shots-Gained: Total. He was also 21st in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green - and he ranked sixth on the tour in Proximity from 75 to 100 yards which will often be his approach distance given his length off the tee. He began 2025 with a tie for fifth place at The Sentry. He was the betting favorite in his second tournament last week at the Farmers Insurance Open at PGA West — and he was the co-leader after two rounds. Then the winds hit Friday afternoon which buried most of the pros teeing off later in the day — and then he caught a stomach bug on Day Four on Saturday to settle for a tie for 42nd place. He should be pretty feisty coming into this event after that disappointing finish.
Aberg is linked with Tommy Fleetwood in Round One head-to-head props. Fleetwood enjoyed a solid season on the PGA Tour last year — headlined by his tie for third place at the Masters last April. But he has still not won an event on the PGA Tour. He missed the cut at the British Open before later settling for 20th place at the PGA Tour Championship in late August. He splits time on the DP World Tour and makes his 2025 PGA Tour debut at this event — so he may need some adjustment time to golf in the US again. As it is, he ranked 76th in Round One Scoring at PGA events last year. He is not a great fit for this course either. His accuracy off-the-tee but lack of length is a great start for Pebble Beach — but he only ranked 92nd on the PGA Tour last year in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green. Fleetwood is great with his short game which pays dividends in saving par at difficult tournaments like the Masters or the British Open — but he does not excel at the skills necessary to put up big numbers on easier courses. Fleetwood ranked 163rd on the PGA Tour last year in Birdies or Better Percentage. My skepticism bears out in his course history. In preparation for the 2019 US Open, Fleetwood settled for a 45th place at the Pro-Am — and he shot three-over par in Round One. At the more challenging conditions of a US Open here later that summer, he finished in 65th place. He played the Pro-Am in 2020 when he finished tied for 31st place after an opening round of one-under par. Aberg opened with a four-under-par in Round One here last year. Take Aberg (7115) versus Fleetwood (7116) in Round One head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.
Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%. For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.
