25* NFL SAT AFTERNOON O/U SPECIAL FEATURE
- Handicapper
- Hollywood Sports
- League
- NFL
- Competition
- Houston Texans vs Kansas City Chiefs
- Release Date
- 01/18/2025 04:13 PM
- Event Date
- 01/18/2025 04:30 PM
- Bet Type
- Over / Under
- Pick
-
Houston Texans vs Kansas City Chiefs Under 41.5 (-108)
(DraftKings)
- Outcome
- Win
- Analysis
- At 4:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Houston Texans (387) and the Kansas City Chiefs (388). THE SITUATION: Houston (11-7) has won two games in a row after their 32-12 upset win at home against the Los Angeles Chargers as a 2.5-point underdog last Saturday. Kansas City (15-2) had won six games in a row before their 38-0 loss at Denver as an 11.5-point underdog two weeks ago in a game where they rested their starters.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Texans flexed their muscles on defense last week by holding the Chargers to just 261 yards of offense. They have held their last three opponents to just 19.0 Points-Per-Game — and their last two opponents have only scored 26 combined points against them. Houston has an outstanding defense that is balanced. They rank sixth in the NFL in Opponent Expected Points Added per rushing attempt and seventh in the league in Opponent EPA per pass attempt. Defensive end Willie Anderson has taken his game to the next level. In his last six contests, the second-year pro has five sacks, 12 hits on the quarterback, and six tackles for loss. The Texans rank third in the NFL in both sacks and takeaways. Houston has played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a straight-up win at home — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a win by 14 or more points. They have also played 4 of their last 5 games on the road Under the Total after not allowing more than 14 points. But the Texans offense has struggled this season amidst a sophomore slump from quarterback C.J. Stroud. Injuries have played a role with wide receivers Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell out the season. It does not help for today’s game that running back Joe Mixon is nursing an ankle injury. Stroud has not been as effective on the road this season. In eight games at home, he has completed 64.6% of his passes for 252.0 passing Yards-Per-Game — and he has a Quarterback Rating of 89.6. But in his nine starts on the road, he has completed only 61.6% of his passes for 190.1 passing YPG — and he has a QBR of 84.3. Under head coach DeMeco Ryan, the Texans have played 12 of their 17 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. Kansas City had held five straight opponents to no more than 19 points before head coach Andy Reid rested his key starters against the Broncos two weeks ago. The Chiefs offense is likely to start this game sluggish after not playing a meaningful game since Christmas Day. Their defense does get back cornerback Jaylen Watson — and that unit ranked in the top eight in pass defense in the first seven weeks of the season before losing him to injury. Kansas City has played 12 of their last 17 games at home Under the Total. They have also played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games at home Under the Total against teams with a winning record. They have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 35.5-42 point range — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total in January.
FINAL TAKE: In Reid’s tenure with the Chiefs, Kansas City has paled 33 of their 44 home games Under the Total when favored by at least seven points. The weather will not help the scoring with the temperature in the low-20s — and the wind is over 10 miles per hour. 25* NFL AFC Divisional Round Playoff Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Houston Texans (387) and the Kansas City Chiefs (388). Best of luck for us — Frank.
