NFL SUNDAY NIGHT DISCOUNTED DEAL
- Handicapper
- Hollywood Sports
- League
- NFL
- Competition
- Washington Commanders vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- Release Date
- 01/12/2025 07:33 PM
- Event Date
- 01/12/2025 08:15 PM
- Bet Type
- Point Spread
- Pick
-
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -3 (-110)
(BetOnline)
- Outcome
- Loss
- Analysis
- At 8:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (384) minus the points versus the Washington Commanders (383). THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (10-7) has won two games in a row and six of their last seven contests after their 27-19 win against New Orleans as a 15-point favorite on Sunday. Washington (12-5) has won five games in a row after their 23-19 win at Dallas as a 7-point favorite last Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BUCCANEERS MINUS THE POINTS: Tampa Bay stays at home this week to play their third straight game on their home field — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after playing their last two games at home. They are scoring 31.9 PPG in their last seven games. Quarterback Baker Mayfield has thrown 16 touchdowns in his last five games — and he has also added a threat with his legs during that span by rushing for 149 yards from 8.7 Yards-Per-Carry. He has helped the Bucs average 220.3 rushing YPG in their last three games. The Buccaneers offense is scoring 29.5 PPG. In their last three games, they are generating 452.0 total YPG which is resulting in 33.0 PPG. They lead the NFL in Third Down Conversion Rate Percentage. They rank fifth in EPA on offense and seventh in DVOA. They rank top five in Points-Per-Drive and fourth in Red Zone Touchdown Percentage Rage. On the other side of the ball, the Bucs' defense is getting healthier again with both Antoine Winfield and Jamal Dean returning from injury to bolster their secondary. They have held their last three opponents to just 271.0 rushing YPG which has resulted in 19.7 PPG. It is once again difficult to run against a Todd Bowles-coached defense. Tampa Bay is limiting their opponents to 97.8 rushing YPG and 4.3 Yards-Per-Carry ranking fourth and ninth in the league. The Buccaneers have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning percentage in the 60-75% range. The Commanders have only played three offenses this season that rank in the top ten in DVOA — and they surrendered 30 or points in all three of those games. They also rank just 22nd in Opponent Red Zone Touchdown Percentage Allowed. Washington stays on the road for the second straight week where they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games. Head coach Dan Quinn’s teams have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their 19 games on the road in his career going back to his tenure with Atlanta when the Total is set at 49.5 or higher.
FINAL TAKE: This game is a rematch of their opening week contest back on September 8th when the Buccaneers won by a 37-20 score in Tampa Bay. Washington has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 opportunities to avenge a loss to their opponents. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted Deal with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (384) minus the points versus the Washington Commanders (383). Best of luck for us — Frank.
