25* CFB BLOWOUT OF THE MONTH!
- Handicapper
- Hollywood Sports
- League
- NCAAF
- Competition
- Stanford vs San Jose State
- Release Date
- 11/29/2024 01:26 PM
- Event Date
- 11/29/2024 04:00 PM
- Bet Type
- Point Spread
- Pick
-
San Jose State -2 (-112)
(DraftKings)
- Outcome
- Win
- Analysis
- At 4:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the San Jose State Spartans (332) minus the points versus the Stanford Cardinal (331). THE SITUATION: San Jose State (6-5) has lost two games in a row and three of their last four contests after their 27-16 loss to UNLV as a 7.5-point underdog last Friday. Stanford (3-8) has lost seven of their last eight games after their 24-21 loss at California as a 14.5-point underdog last Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE SPARTANS MINUS THE POINTS: San Jose State has played the top two teams in the Mountain West Conference the last two weeks — and they held leads late in the third quarter before fading late against superior rosters. Against a Boise State team currently ranked fourth in the College Football Playoff, they held a 21-14 lead midway through the third quarter before giving up the final four touchdowns in that game. Last week, the Spartans rebounded to take a 16-13 lead late in the third quarter before the Rebels scored the final two touchdowns in that contest. Quarterback Walker Egget had an ugly boxscore with just four completions in 22 pass attempts for San Jose State — but the wet and sloppy conditions should get much of the blame for those rough numbers. Eggett has one of the best weapons in the nation with wide receiver Nick Nash. It has been a successful first season under former Navy head coach Ken Niumatalolo despite a challenging conference schedule. They are outscoring their opponents by +0.9 Points-Per-Game and outgaining them by +14.5 net Yards-Per-Game. At home, they are outscoring their opponents by +3.5 PPG and outgaining them by +35.7 net YPG. San Jose State has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games when favored by up to seven points — and Niumatalolo’s teams have covered the point spread in 15 of their 23 home games in his career when favored by up to seven points. The Spartans have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games against teams outside the Mountain West Conference. Stanford blew a 21-7 lead in the third quarter last week and lost the game after the Golden Bears executed a 98-yard touchdown drive in the final two minutes. They got outgained by -112 net yards in that contest. Last year was destined to be a trying season for first-year head coach Troy Taylor taking over a decimated Cardinal program whose high academic standards made things very difficult in the new world of college football with the NIL and the transfer portal. Taylor inherited the fewest returning production of all Power Five programs. But the strides made this season have been disappointing. They only have two wins against FBS teams with their third victory being against Cal Poly Slo. They are getting outscored by -12.5 PPG and outgained by -93.1 net YPG. Returning starting quarterback Ashton Daniels is completing only 62% of his passes with only nine touchdown passes and nine interceptions. Last year’s defense suffered by ranking 129th in the nation by allowing 37.2 Points-Per-Game and 461.7 YPG — and despite 15 of the 20 players who logged in at least 200 snaps back for the second year under defensive coordinator Bobby April, they are still surrendering 412.3 total YPG which has resulted in 39.3 PPG. The Cardinal has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games after a loss to a conference opponent. On the road, they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games as an underdog. Stanford only scores 19.2 PPG on the road — and their home hosts are generation 429.0 total YPG against them resulting in 39.2 PPG. The 412.3 passing YPG they are giving up is the eighth most in the FBS. They rank 110th in Opponent Pass Success Rate Allowed with opposing quarterbacks completing 66% of their passes against them with 27 touchdown passes. The Cardinal offense has not rushed for at least 120 yards in seven of their games — and they have failed to pass for at least 200 yards in eight of their games. They convert on just 34% of their third downs. They rank 116th in Havoc Rate Allowed with their offensive line giving up 38 sacks and 95 tackles for loss. The Spartans rank 30th in Havoc Rate with 22 sacks and 77 tackles for loss. San Jose State ranks eighth in Opponent Pass Success Rate Allowed and 15th in Opposing Pass Success Rate Allowed on passing downs. Stanford has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games against teams with a winning record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games against non-conference opponents.
FINAL TAKE: Motivation may be an issue for the Cardinal on the road against a Group of Five opponent in this lost season. The Spartans would love to knock off their FBS geographical rival — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 25* CFB Blowout Game of the Month with the San Jose State Spartans (332) minus the points versus the Stanford Cardinal (331). Best of luck for us — Frank.
