25* MLB SATURDAY NIGHT SPECIAL FEATURE (R-L)
- Handicapper
- Hollywood Sports
- League
- MLB
- Competition
- San Francisco Giants vs Colorado Rockies
- Release Date
- 07/20/2024 06:36 PM
- Event Date
- 07/20/2024 08:10 PM
- Bet Type
- Run Line
- Pick
-
Colorado Rockies +1.5 (-105)
(BetMGM)
- Outcome
- Win
- Analysis
- At 8:10 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Colorado Rockies (912) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the San Francisco Giants (911) listing both starting pitchers Kyle Freeland and Logan Webb. THE SITUATION: Colorado (35-63) has won two games in a row after their 7-3 win against the Giants yesterday. San Francisco (47-51) has lost four of their last six games as well as six of their last nine contests.
REASONS TO TAKE THE ROCKIES PLUS THE +1.5 RUN-LINE: Colorado may be floundering this season — but they have covered the Run-Line in 10 of their last 16 games. They have also won 3 of their last 4 games after not allowing more than three runs in their last game. Additionally, the Rockies have won 4 of their last 5 games at home at Coors Field. Freeland gets the ball tonight who has been pitching much better than his 1-3 record along with a 6.00 ERA and a 1.62 WHIP in eight starts would indicate. The club was optimistic about him during spring training as his velocity was up with all his pitches. But a left elbow strain appeared to impact his early performances which eventually led to a stint on the injured list. Since his return last month, Freeland has registered a 1.71 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP in four starts. He has demonstrated better command — and he is getting whiffs with an improving curveball. In his last start against Cincinnati the previous Wednesday, he struck out nine batters in 6 2/3 innings. The deeper sabermetrics suggest he should be giving up at least 1 1/2 fewer runs per game (even with his bad start to the season). His expected ERA (xERA) from Statcast which incorporates exit velocity and hard-hit rate into the otherwise fielding independent data sits at 4.76. Both his SIERA and xFIP relying on fielding independent data projects his ERA at 4.68 and 4.43. Last season, he had a 3.67 SIERA and a 3.49 xFIP despite a frontline ERA of 5.03. The lefty has been more effective at home where he enjoys a 1.50 ERA, a 1.00 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .209 in three starts as opposed to his 9.38 ERA, a 2.08 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .383 in five starts on the road. He should have success against this Giants team that ranks 17th and 18th in weighted On-Base Average and weighted Runs Created on the road against left-handed pitchers since June 1st. San Francisco is the definition of mediocrity. They have only spent five days this season above .500 — but they have not fallen below .500 by more than six games. The Giants have failed to cover the Run-Line in 6 of their last 7 games. They have also lost 6 of their last 8 games after allowing six or more runs in their last contest. On the road, they have lost 9 of their last 12 games. They counter with Webb who has a 7-7 record along with a 3.47 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP in 20 starts. The right-hander made the All-Star team for the first time in his career — but that accomplishment came at a time when his performance has been in decline. His xERA sits at 4.86. Both his SIERA and xFIP project an ERA of 4.68 and 4.58 respectively. He’s striking out fewer batters which leaves him less margin for error. After seeing his strikeout rate peak in 2021 when he generated 9.50 strikeouts per nine innings, he is only striking out 7.75 batters per nine innings this season. The right-hander has been more effective at home where he has a 3.00 ERA, a 1.13 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .250 in nine starts — but those numbers rise to a 3.92 ERA, a 1.34 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .278 in 11 starts on the road. The Rockies get on base at home against right-handed pitchers — they rank eighth in MLB in weighted On-Base Average this season and rises to fourth in that category at home against right-handers since May 1st. The team’s problem has been getting these runners to cross home plate — but they have improved to 15th in MLB in weighted Runs Created at home against right-handed pitchers since June 1st.
FINAL TAKE: The Giants have failed to cover the -1.5 Run-Line in 10 of their last 14 games on the road when favored — and the Rockies have covered the Run-Line in 6 of their last 8 games at home against San Francisco. 25* MLB Saturday Night Special Feature with the Colorado Rockies (912) plus the +1.5 Run-Line versus the San Francisco Giants (911) listing both starting pitchers Kyle Freeland and Logan Webb. Best of luck for us — Frank.
