Fargo's MLB Tuesday Triple Play (5-2 Run)
- Handicapper
- Matt Fargo
- League
- MLB
- Competition
- Cincinnati Reds vs Pittsburgh Pirates
- Time
- 06/18/2024 06:40 PM
- Bet Type
- Moneyline
- Pick
-
Cincinnati Reds -119
(BetOnline)
- Outcome
- Win
- Analysis
- This is a play on the CINCINNATI REDS as part of our MLB Tuesday Triple Play. Cincinnati has lost three straight games after dropping the opener in Pittsburgh last night as it was unable to get to Paul Skenes but is in a good situation tonight. The Reds come in as the road favorite and they are 19-13 as favorites this season compared to being 10 games under .500 as underdogs. They have been average on the road but they have the big edge in this series from the bullpen in addition to the starting advantage tonight. The Pirates have had a very similar season as they have the identical record as Cincinnati with an equally average offense with very similar splits. The one significant betting difference is that they have had more success as underdogs than they have had as favorites and this is not the spot to grab them in that underdog role. Bailey Falter has had a very good start to the season but his numbers suggest negative regression that has already begun to trend that way. He opened the season allowing six runs in four innings against the Marlins but went on a run of four consecutive starts where he allowed only four runs total but he has fallen back into his career form as in his last eight starts, he has a 4.08 ERA and while his overall ERA is still sub-4.00, his xERA is 4.9. Nick Lodolo had a great rookie campaign in 2022 with a 3.66 ERA in 19 starts but had a setback last season with a leg injury that caused him to not pitch in a game for 10 months. He got off to a promising start this season with a 3.34 ERA through six starts but had another slight setback with a groin strain that landed him on the IL but he has recovered well with a 2.31 ERA in four starts with the Reds winning all four games. 10* (901) Cincinnati Reds
