TDG’s NBA PLAYOFF GAME OF THE MONTH
- Handicapper
- Team Del Genio
- League
- NBA
- Competition
- Minnesota Timberwolves vs Phoenix Suns
- Time
- 04/26/2024 10:52 PM
- Bet Type
- Point Spread
- Pick
-
Phoenix Suns -4.5 (-115)
(BetMGM)
- Outcome
- Loss
- Analysis
- Our 25* NBA Playoff Game of the Month is with the Phoenix Suns minus the points versus the Minnesota Timberwolves at 10:40 pm et.
The Phoenix Suns went into the locker room at halftime of Game 2 with a 51-50 lead. Yet they did not show nearly enough energy in the second half as the Timberwolves blew them out, 55-42, to take that game by a 105-93 score and seize a 2-0 lead in this series. Minnesota is imposing its will with a physical style of play. They are getting to the rim. Head coach Chris Finch’s decision to have Karl-Anthony Towns defend Kevin Durant has frustrated the Suns half-court offense. Yet Phoenix has answers they can turn to as they come back home in this series. It starts with doing a better job of protecting the basketball. They had 20 turnovers on Tuesday which led the Timberwolves to score 31 points. The Suns only scored two points off the 14 turnovers they forced. For the series, they are turning the ball over almost 20% of the time, which is well above their 15.0% turnover rate for the season. Phoenix needs to simply make more of their shots. After making only 44.0% of their shots in Game 1, they had a 44.9% field goal percentage in Game 2. Grayson Allen turned his right ankle late in that game which leaves him questionable tonight. Allen says his ankle “feels good” for this must-win game. The Suns have only scored 93 and 95 points in this series despite averaging 115.7 points per game on 49.2% shooting, and they make 38.6% of their shots when playing at home. Phoenix swept the Timberwolves in their three regular season games. With Devin Booker and Bradley Beal healthy and on the court with Durant, they arguably have the best trio in the league. The Suns have covered the point spread in twelve of their last nineteen games following a loss in the playoffs. They have covered the point spread in nine of their last thirteen games after losing two games in a row. Phoenix has covered the point spread in five of their last seven games after playing a game where they did not score more than 100 points.
Minnesota struggled against the Suns in the regular season because their defensive principles focus on defending the rim and the 3-point line. The Timberwolves ranked fourth in the NBA in opponent location effective field goal percentage. They give up midrange jumpers, but Durant, Booker, and Beal are all efficient shooting in that area. Minnesota is very tough to beat when playing at home where they had a 32-11 record. While their 26-15 record on the road is still good, their defensive numbers are not as impressive when playing away from home. The Timberwolves allow 106.2 points per game on 44.9% shooting, yet when playing on the road they give up another 3.1 points per game on 46.5% shooting. Minnesota has covered the point spread in four of their last eleven games after winning their two previous games at home. Play Phoenix minus the points.
Good luck - Team Del Genio.
