Nelly’s NL Total of the Month 5-0 MLB RUN
- Handicapper
- Nelly's Sports
- League
- MLB
- Competition
- St. Louis Cardinals vs New York Mets
- Time
- 04/26/2024 07:10 PM
- Bet Type
- Over / Under
- Pick
-
St. Louis Cardinals vs New York Mets Over 8 (+100)
(BetOnline)
- Outcome
- Loss
- Analysis
- The Cardinals have been a very disappointing offensive performer this season, but St. Louis has reached five runs in three of the past five games and had yesterday off following a nice series win over Arizona. Jose Butto has pitched well in three starts for the Mets with a 1.65 ERA but he has been fortunate to get away with limited damage despite a very high 5.0 BB/9. His BABIP is just .235 and he is yet to allow a home run in more than 16 innings, a pace that will be hard to maintain given the limited career track record for the 26-year-old right-hander. Butto had decent results in limited MLB action last season but had a 5.93 ERA over his AAA season and has mostly been on a journeyman path since joining the Mets organization at age 19. New York has reached 13-11 this season with a great run in mid-April but the pitching staff has allowed at least four runs in five of the past six games with the bullpen ERA climbing to 3.50 in the past five games. St. Louis relievers own a 6.27 ERA in the past five games as late scoring will be possible in this game and neither starter is likely to produce a deep quality outing. Miles Mikolas had an amazing 2018 season for the Cardinals, but he has had a losing record each of the past four seasons and is 1-3 this season with a 6.49 ERA in five starts so far in 2024. Mikolas often has one of the lowest K/9 rates of any regular NL starter and he has been a home run risk this season, while his groundball rate has been below 40 percent since the start of last season. In the past 10 games the Mets have averaged 5.2 runs per nine vs. right-handers and the Mets scored 13 runs in fewer than 11 innings vs. Mikolas last season. Citi Field is generally a lower scoring park, but some wind will be pushing out to left field on a cooler April night, and Mikolas owns a 5.54 ERA in Queens in his career. The Cardinals have been an ‘under’ team this season but the opposition has reached five runs in four of five Mikolas starts this season.
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