Nelly’s Thursday Game 3 Delivery 5-0 RUN
- Handicapper
- Nelly's Sports
- League
- NBA
- Competition
- Denver Nuggets vs Los Angeles Lakers
- Time
- 04/25/2024 10:10 PM
- Bet Type
- Point Spread
- Pick
-
Los Angeles Lakers +1 (-110)
(DraftKings)
- Outcome
- Loss
- Analysis
- Round 1 squads that are 0-2 in the series are 19-11 ATS when favored at home in Game 3 since 1997 and those teams are 5-1 ATS coming off an ATS win in Game 2. While the Game 2 result for the Lakers was a crushing finish in Denver after leading by 10 heading into the 4th quarter, there were plenty of positive takeaways from the game that at least leaves the Lakers a chance to get back into this series. With now 10 consecutive losses against the Nuggets Los Angeles will be difficult for some to support but Los Angeles is 29-14 S/U at home this season while the Nuggets are 17-23-1 ATS on the road. Almost every game on the losing streak going back to January 2023 has been a competitive game including three of four games in the Western Conference Finals last season decided by six or fewer points. The Lakers had a free throw deficit in Game 2 while also soundly defeated in rebounding and points in the paint, yet the game was there for the taking in a difficult environment. Denver never led by more than three points in the game, and one must believe the Lakers could get a few calls at home tonight with their backs against the wall. The Lakers faced a top five schedule for the season compared to a below average slate for the Nuggets and Los Angeles has produced 19 top 10 wins this season compared to only 15 for Denver. The efficiency numbers down the stretch were not far apart with only slight edges on offense and defense for Denver with both teams grading as top 10 performers in the final 10 games of the regular season. Expect the best from the Lakers for Game 3 on Thursday in this do-or-die situation. Last season in the Western Conference Finals the Lakers were -5.5 in Game 3 down 0-2, they didn’t get it done, but the pricing difference is massive nearly a year later.
Thank you for playing with Nelly’s and Best of Luck.
