Scott MLB Contrarian Crusher! Tests 86% RUN!
- Handicapper
- Scott Rickenbach
- League
- MLB
- Competition
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Francisco Giants
- Time
- 04/18/2024 09:45 PM
- Bet Type
- Over / Under
- Pick
-
Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Francisco Giants Over 8 (-105)
(DraftKings)
- Outcome
- Loss
- Analysis
- Rotation #953: MLB Thursday OVER 8 -105 in San Francisco Giants vs Arizona Diamondbacks @ 9:45 ET - Expected pitching match-up is Logan Webb versus Ryne Nelson. Note that Nelson is struggling early this season and the Giants have hitters with experience against him. In fact, 6 of the 7 that do have gone 11 of 25 against him for a .440 batting average. As for Webb, he is off a solid start but got hit hard (and was fortunate) in his most recent home start and that was preceded by a rough road outing too. Also, the Diamondbacks have a lot of batters with plenty of experience against him so he might not be fooling many guys with his repertoire of pitches in this one. That said, the value is with the over here also because of the bullpens. Currently the Giants bullpen ERA ranks near the bottom of the majors and the Diamondbacks pen ERA ranks in the middle of the pack. Arizona is off a 5-3 loss but had won 5 of 7 games leading into that one. Also, the Dbacks have scored an average of 5.6 runs per game on the season and that includes 5 runs per game last 9 games. The Giants have not hit well early this season overall but have scored an average of nearly 5 runs per game last 7 games and are trending the right direction with wins in 4 of their last 7 games. Interestingly, SF has allowed an average of 7 runs per game this season when coming off a win in their prior game! Arizona has scored an average of 6.5 runs this season when off a loss. I expect similar results here and I expect Nelson's struggles against a number of the SF hitters to continue here. We get a low total because of long-term SF numbers in home games but this one sets up perfectly to get into double digits in runs. OVER 8 -105 in San Francisco
