Nelly’s Wednesday AL Delivery 24-14 RUN
- Handicapper
- Nelly's Sports
- League
- MLB
- Competition
- Cleveland Guardians vs Boston Red Sox
- Time
- 04/17/2024 07:10 PM
- Bet Type
- Moneyline
- Pick
-
Cleveland Guardians +124
(BetOnline)
- Outcome
- Loss
- Analysis
- Ben Lively only has 208 career MLB innings in his career and nearly half of those innings came back in 2017 as he has bounced around several organizations and pitched in the KBO as well. Lively made 12 starts last season for Cincinnati and pitched better than his marginal season line suggests, as one awful outing in hitting conditions at Wrigley Field ruined his numbers. He hasn’t pitched yet in 2024 for Cleveland but should capably fill-in after the Guardians took the second game of this series last night in 11 innings in a game where both teams used seven pitchers each. The bullpen toll was more significant on Boston’s side and the Red Sox have greatly struggled with relief pitching this season in contrast to the bullpen results for Cleveland that have been among the best in the American League. For the Red Sox Tanner Houck gets the call with breakthrough numbers through three starts, going 2-1 with a 9.7 K/9 and a 2.04 ERA so far in 2024 despite posting a 5.01 ERA with 10 losses last season in his most significant MLB innings season. Houck has had some good fortune this season with only one home run allowed compared to a 1.2 HR/9 last season while he has also faced Oakland and a strikeout-prone Angels lineup in his two starts. Both of his road starts went well but he allowed 12 hits and seven runs in his only Fenway Park start and there is a massive contrast in his career splits with far worse numbers pitching in Boston. Cleveland has a low strikeout rate and continues to hit at a high level, averaging 5.6 runs per nine this season. In the past 10 games Boston is batting just .204 with 3.9 runs per nine and Cleveland already has nine road wins this season heading into the third game of this four-game set in Boston. The starting pitching matchup should be a wash tonight despite the underdog price on the Guardians but neither starter can be counted on for a long outing and the Guardians have consistently provided more key hits and better bullpen results this season.
Thank you for playing with Nelly’s and Best of Luck.
