Hollywood Sports - Cincinnati vs BYU

CFB FRIDAY LATE SHOW BAILOUT

Handicapper
Hollywood Sports
League
NCAAF
Competition
Cincinnati vs BYU
Release Date
09/29/2023 09:01 PM
Event Date
09/29/2023 10:15 PM
Bet Type
Point Spread
Pick
Cincinnati +1 (-110) (BetMGM)
Outcome
Loss
Analysis
At 10:15 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Cincinnati Bearcats (119) minus (or plus) the point(s) versus the BYU Cougars (120). THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (2-2) has lost two games in a row after their 20-6 loss to Oklahoma as a 13.5-point underdog last Saturday. BYU (3-1) had their three-game winning streak snapped in a 38-27 loss at Kansas as a 9-point underdog on Saturday. REASONS TO TAKE THE BEARCATS MINUS (OR PLUS) THE POINT(S): Cincinnati failed to deliver in the Red Zone last week or they could have upset the Sooners — they scored only six points in their six trips inside Oklahoma’s 20-yard line and they scored only a field goal in their final four trips inside the Red Zone. And in their loss to Miami (OH) the previous week, they outgained the Redhawks by a 538-358 margin in yards and on the first down battle by a 30-16 margin but still managed to lose the game by a 31-24 score. My biggest question regarding this team in the preseason was whether former head coach Luke Fickell left this program at just the right time. After six seasons coaching the Bearcats, Fickell took the head coaching job at Wisconsin. The Cincinnati brass turned to Scott Satterfield who had four up-and-down seasons at Louisville where he often seemed to have one foot out the door with his battles with their administration. Only nine starters are back from last year’s group that finished 9-4 after a 24-7 loss against the Cardinals in the Fenway Bowl in Satterfield’s last game coaching for Louisville. Now the Bearcats make their debut in a Power Five conference with their move from the American Athletic Conference to the Big 12. But Satterfield’s teams have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after losing two games in a row. Cincinnati has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games after failing to score more than six points in their last game — and Satterfield’s teams have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after failing to score more than 14 points in their last contest. Satterfield’s teams have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a loss at home to a conference rival. BYU had two Kedon Slovis interceptions returned for touchdowns in their loss to Kansas last week. After committing 16 turnover-worthy plays last season playing at Pittsburgh, he already has six turnover-worthy plays this season. The Cougars' game-calling is not helping him out either — as they rank 120th in the nation in Rushing Rate while ranking last in the FBS in Rushing Success Rate. The BYU offensive line was completely remade in the offseason with their two returning starters changing positions to accommodate transfers and new starters. It’s not working — they are allowing a pressure rate of 33.3% of their snaps. The Cougars rank 125th in the nation in Line Yards — and this all results in them ranking 126th in the FBS in Success Rate Overall. My question for this team in my offseason deep-dive was whether the Cougars would have the physicality on their roster to sustain a full season of Power-Five conference play. Head coach Kalani Sitake’s team began their first season in the Big 12 with 15 starters back from last year’s team that finished 8-5. They closed out the year by winning four games in a row culminating in a 24-23 victory against SMU in the New Mexico Bowl. Only five of their games were against Power-Five conference opponents or Notre Dame last year — and they went 2-3 in those five contests. Depth is a big concern for the roster — and they only returned two starters apiece on the offensive and defensive lines. BYU return home after playing their last two games on the road with the trip beginning with a 38-31 win at Arkansas — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 32 of their last 44 games after a two-game road stand. They have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of 19 home games after playing two games in a row where 60 or more combined points were scored. FINAL TAKE: In the Cougars' last 9 home games as an underdog, they have failed to cover the point spread 6 times. 10* CFB Friday Late Show Bailout with the Cincinnati Bearcats (119) minus (or plus) the point(s) versus the BYU Cougars (120). Best of luck for us — Frank.

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