25* MLB TOTAL OF THE MONTH!
- Handicapper
- Hollywood Sports
- League
- MLB
- Competition
- Texas Rangers vs Seattle Mariners
- Release Date
- 09/29/2023 08:22 PM
- Event Date
- 09/29/2023 10:10 PM
- Bet Type
- Over / Under
- Pick
-
Texas Rangers vs Seattle Mariners Over 7.5 (-120)
(Caesars)
- Outcome
- Win
- Analysis
- At 10:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Texas Rangers (923) and the Seattle Seahawks (924) listing both starting pitchers Nathan Eovaldi and Bryan Woo. THE SITUATION: Texas (89-70) has lost two of their last three games after their 3-2 loss on the road against the Mariners. Seattle (86-73) has won two of their last three games.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The stakes remain urgent for both teams — the Rangers are two games ahead of Houston for first place in the AL West while the Mariners are one game behind those Astros for the final American League wildcard spot. There are still scenarios where both teams could find themselves on the outside looking in after the regular season concludes this weekend. Texas managed only three base hits last night — and they have played 9 of their last 14 games Over the Total after a game where they did not have more than four hits. They have played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total after a loss. Additionally, they have played 15 of their last 22 games Over the Total after a game where neither team scored more than three runs — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total after playing a game that finished Under the Total. And while they have not allowed more than three runs in their last two games, they have then played 26 of their last 39 games Over the Total after not allowing more than three runs in two games in a row. On the road, they have played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total. Eovaldi gets the ball with his 12-4 record along with a 3.26 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP in 24 starts. The deeper sabermetrics call for regression with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.18 and 3.95 moving forward. He is struggling this month in his five starts with a 7.41 ERA, a 1.88 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .309. Seattle has played 5 straight Overs after a game that finished Under the Total — and the Over is 6-3-1 in their last 10 games after scoring no more than three runs in their last game. The Mariners have also played 12 of their last 19 games Over the Total after losing five or six of their last seven games. And while Seattle has not scored more than three runs in their last two games, they have then played 31 of their last 48 games Over the Total after scoring three runs or less in two straight games. They have played 14 of their last 22 games Over the Total when listed in the +/- 125 price range. They counter with Woo who has a 4-5 record along with a 4.39 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP in 17 starts. In his four starts this month, the rookie right-hander has a 5.21 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP. He faces a Rangers offense that ranks 10th and 8th this season in weighted On-Base Created and weighted Runs Created this season — and they rank 8th and 6th in those metrics since August 1st and 5th and 4th in those categories this month. Despite scoring at least five runs in six of their last nine games, Texas is hitting only .218 in their last five games — but they have played 16 of their last 18 games Over the Total after not hitting better than .225 in their last five contests.
FINAL TAKE: The Rangers have played 18 of their last 26 games Over the Total in September — and the Mariners have played 15 of their last 24 games Over the Total this month. 25* MLB Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Texas Rangers (923) and the Seattle Seahawks (924) listing both starting pitchers Nathan Eovaldi and Bryan Woo. Best of luck for us — Frank.
