TDG’s NCAA-F CONFERENCE GAME OF THE MONTH
- Handicapper
- Team Del Genio
- League
- NCAAF
- Competition
- Louisville vs NC State
- Release Date
- 09/29/2023 05:21 PM
- Event Date
- 09/29/2023 07:00 PM
- Bet Type
- Point Spread
- Pick
-
Nc State +4 (-110)
(Caesars)
- Outcome
- Win
- Analysis
- Our 25* NCAA-F ACC Game of the Month is on North Carolina State plus the points versus Louisville at 7 pm et.
The Louisville Cardinals have won their first four games under new head coach Jeff Brohm. After beating Georgia Tech on a neutral field in Atlanta to begin their season, they followed up by beating Murray State at home and then Indiana on another neutral field in Indianapolis. The Cardinals won their fourth game in a row last week with a 56-28 victory against Boston College as a 14-point favorite. Yet after playing two of their first four games on a neutral field and their other two games at home at Cardinal Stadium, this will be their first true road game in a hostile environment under Brohm. Louisville has covered the point spread in just five of their last seventeen games on the road when the oddsmakers install the over/under from 52.5-56. The Cardinal did gain 582 total yards of offense last week with graduate transfer Jack Plummer completing 18 of 21 passes for 388 yards with five touchdown passes. Yet Louisville has not covered the point spread in three straight games after playing a game where they gained 525 or more yards. They outgained the Eagles by 155 net yards, yet they have covered the point spread in three of their last eight games after outgaining their previous opponent by 125 or more yards. The Cardinals have not covered the point spread in their last three games after a point spread cover as a double-digit favorite.
North Carolina State improved their record to 3-1 with a 24-21 victory at Virginia as a 7.5-point favorite last week. The Wolfpack’s lone loss this season was a 45-24 setback at home to Notre Dame. Defensive coordinator Tony Gibson's group has not allowed more than 21 points in their other three games. North Carolina State’s loss to the Fighting Irish at home was a rare setback for this team at Carter-Finley Stadium. They are still on a 17-2 run at home (straight up) coming into this prime-time game under the Friday night lights. Head coach Dave Doeren has led this team to eight straight bowls as he coaches in his eleventh season with the program. He brought in a dynamic senior quarterback in the transfer portal in Brennan Armstrong. The former three-year captain for Virginia has thrown for over 9000 yards in his career. Doeren reunited him with his offensive coordinator in the 2021 season by hiring Robert Anae away from Syracuse. Armstrong threw for 4400 yards in that ’21 season when coached by Anae. The Wolfpack passing attack has yet to put up big numbers with them only averaging 215 passing yards per game. Doeren wants to have balance on offense, and it was only against the Irish that the offense passed the ball more than they ran it. Yet it might be this conference game with North Carolina State motivated to avenge a 25-10 loss at Louisville last year that Doeren gives the green light to Anae to open up the passing game. Virginia averaged 34.6 points per game and 415 yards per game in that ’21 season with Armstrong playing for Anae. The Cardinals have given up 295 or more passing yards in all three of their games against FBS opponents. Play North Carolina State plus the points.
Good luck - Team Del Genio.
