Nelly’s Friday Night ACC Knockout 16-12 RUN
- Handicapper
- Nelly's Sports
- League
- NCAAF
- Competition
- Louisville vs NC State
- Release Date
- 09/29/2023 12:51 PM
- Event Date
- 09/29/2023 07:00 PM
- Bet Type
- Point Spread
- Pick
-
Louisville -3.5 (-110)
(Consensus Line)
- Outcome
- Loss
- Analysis
- While the 4-0 start for Louisville doesn’t offer a signature win, Jeff Brohm has the offense producing, posting 7.7 yards per play which is fifth best in the nation, even with three of four wins against power 5 schools. Louisville has two road wins against power 5 schools as well and Georgia Tech and Indiana are likely better than the current results might suggest. Losing to Notre Dame at home is forgivable for NC State but the Wolfpack were uncompetitive in that game in what should have been a play-up situation for a huge home date on the schedule. The wins over Connecticut and Virginia were very shaky results with a S/U loss in play most of the way as this looks like one of the worst teams of Dave Doeren’s tenure despite surviving to 3-1. Brennan Armstong appeared to be a great find in the transfer portal, but Armstrong has not been able replicate the success he had early in this career with marginal numbers for far with NC State. Armstong is also the team’s leading rusher as the top running back has just 117 yards in four games as the skill position talent for the Wolfpack is not up to past standards. NC State’s schedule ranks #125 this season as these teams have similar defensive numbers through very different paths. Louisville won 25-10 last season with 192 rushing yards in a game that was close until the 4th quarter but also saw Louisville settle for four short field goals of 30 yards or less. NC State has some successful history in the home underdog role and Louisville does have Notre Dame on deck for a big lookahead contest but the ground edge for the Cardinals should be significant. Jawhar Jordan has 478 rushing yards on 9.6 yards per carry with the Cardinals among the best rushing teams in the nation, posting 2.1 more yards per attempt than NC State through a tougher schedule. After a few early hiccups, Jack Plummer has settled in to play well at quarterback the past two games in major conference wins and while this is the first road game of the season for Louisville, the gap between these teams right now looks more significant than the current pricing.
Thank you for playing with Nelly’s and Best of Luck.
